We are almost at the end of the first year of the Brexit experiment, which started on January 1st at the last minute of the signing of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). It is worth mentioning that at this time last year, a consensus had not yet been fully reached.

Even if the “reasonable worst-case scenario” 7,000 trucks The support for Dover was never realized (this rare example of the government’s clever management of expectations and strategic communication), and it is still Bumpy year Compared with peer countries, British exporters.

In fact, there were a lot of interruptions behind the scenes in January, but most of them were pushed back to distribution centers, warehouses and parcel warehouses, where transporters were waiting to get the correct paperwork to set off.

Border compliance level Surprised British officials, By mid-February, only 2% of trucks were turned away, thanks to promotional activities (remember the Kent Pass?) through the French “SI Brexit” system on consignment.

In order to get the green light to board the ferry, you need to prove that your forms-customs, health certificates, etc.-are in order. This means that after the first few months, only a manageable number of vehicles needs to be pulled aside for inspections on the EU side of the strait. In short, all this is surprisingly good.

But what most members of the public will not notice is that it only works in one direction-to allow British goods to enter Europe. There is no need to pre-declare things that appear in another way. In fact, customs declarations can be postponed for up to 175 days.

All of this will change on January 1, 2022. Unless the government changes their minds at the last minute, transporters transporting goods from the EU to the UK will need to pre-declare their goods through the UK equivalent of “SI Brexit”, or “GVMS”, or truck movement services.

Customs declaration can no longer be postponed, and animal and plant-derived products also need to be declared in advance “Import of products, animals, food and feed systems” (IPAFFS) system-although they do not need a complete export health certificate before July (you need a veterinarian’s signature).

This means that, to a certain extent, the new EU-to-UK system is gradually being implemented compared to the “big bang” we saw on the UK-EU route last January from the first day of comprehensive inspection.

However, in order to get the green light to board the ferry in Calais, EU exporters sending food first need to fill out the IPAFFS form to generate a reference number to complete the customs form, which can then be used to obtain the GVMS code.

As Shane Brennan of the Cold Chain Alliance said: “The government’s impression of IPAFFS requires a “soft start”-but without customs or GVMS codes, you can’t do that.”

So will this all go as (relatively) smooth as last time? The fact is that no one knows honestly, because the operation of the system will depend on the understanding of the new system by drivers and exporters from 27 different countries.

In practice, many of them will be handled by agents, but Brennan estimates that there will still be a considerable number of EU food exporters and transporters “catch up” after January 1 next year.

From an optimistic point of view, given that 85% of truck drivers on the Short Strait are EU drivers, and they have used “SI Brexit” for a year to do the opposite, they should-theoretically-be able to manage GVMS.

They may also find that, given the British government’s professed desire to prioritize mobility, if things become tricky in the first few months, the British authorities will be more flexible than the mainland authorities based on how the Brexit border has been handled so far.

When the top tangerine Appear in front Last month, the members of the Public Accounts Committee seemed to have full confidence in the preparations.

Jim Harra, permanent secretary of HM Revenue & Customs, stated that companies are already filling out customs forms, although they can extend the extension for 175 days, which means HMRC “believes that traders are ready”.

He is not sure about EU transporters, admitting that the “biggest risk” comes from EU drivers who don’t realize what they need to do, although HMRC says it will write to 14,000 EU transport groups every month to encourage them.

Hala is very confident. He said that he believes that the EU’s “preparation” for reverse trucks is “higher” than we saw in January 2021, but he still said that “we will undoubtedly see some trucks being turned away, at least in initial”.

Another major unknown is the extent to which the newly increased trade troubles with the UK will inhibit the interest of EU companies in trading with the UK, especially small businesses on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, which are relatively weak in handling new instruments.

Another thing to note in 2022 is End of easement The rules of origin will require traders to provide basic information to prove that their goods are fully “Made in the UK” or “Made in the EU” in order to comply with the zero-tariff access conditions under the TCA.

Companies will continue to self-declare that their products are indeed eligible, but rumors have very strong evidence that some smaller companies have not really kept up with this highly complex field.

After Brexit, the United Kingdom spoke with several British traders this week. Although they received letters and e-mails from HMRC, they were still full of questions and uncertainties in this area, which made importers responsible for Any wrongly imported goods are exempt from customs duties.

This means that a shoe store in Bristol, for example, importing duty-free shoes from the European Union (but actually importing from Asia and continuing to ship, so it is not eligible) may find itself paying annoying retrospective fees.

The owner of that store is already considering whether they have a lawyer, cash and tight contracts that will enable them to recover these losses from their EU suppliers if this happens. All of this adds to the pressure of doing business, even if it never happened.

Similarly, we will have to see how HMRC is actively checking whether the declaration is substantive, but it will also cut in another way-if they cannot prove their goods, British companies exporting to the EU will face an angry EU Customers who are challenged by EU customs authorities are eligible for zero-tariff access.

All of this means that, in some respects, Brexit is really only “half” completed in 2021, and the second phase, even if it charges quite low in the media, will still allow trade with Europe. Companies have a lot to think about 2022.

Do you work in an industry affected by the UK’s withdrawal from the EU’s single market and customs union? If so, how does this change hurt you and your business—even beneficial?Please keep your feedback [email protected].

Brexit figures

Christmas is approaching, but discussions on Northern Ireland are still going on, and there is no clear prospect of a solution, at least with regard to issues surrounding customs and agricultural inspections.

theme Signaled It will unilaterally advance a legal patch to guarantee equal access to medicines, even if the UK will not cooperate with it in this regard.

EU insiders said that although both sides have actually extended the grace period to ease the burden of the disputed Northern Ireland Protocol, the pharmaceutical industry wants legal certainty, so the European Commission seems determined to promote the entry into force of this particular document before Christmas. .

As Northern Ireland is under increasing political pressure before the May local elections, it is not certain what the new year will bring. Lord David Frost-who was sent to seek a mutually agreed deal-will need to determine at some point whether this has been proven to be possible.

The government often talks about triggering Article 16 safeguards as a last resort, but this week’s poll (see chart) raised interesting questions about whether this is really a priority for Westminster, rather than the area itself.

analyze New data, Katy Hayward of Queen’s University Belfast A few interesting points In a blog post co-authored with David Phinnemore, serving the UK in a constantly changing European think tank.

It’s worth noting that polls found that 52% of Northern Ireland believe that the agreement is a “good thing” for the region in general, an increase of 9% since June, which may be related to the reduction in shortages in the region Related, especially the fuel shortage, is better than the UK this summer.

However, in contrast, as Hayward wrote, most of the MPs surveyed believe that, in general, the agreement is a “bad thing” for Northern Ireland.

This is a potentially enlightening divergence of opinion, especially with regard to the fact that 87% of Northern Ireland respondents “do not trust or strongly distrust the handling of the agreement by the British government”, while 44% of respondents Don’t trust the European Commission.

If Frost wants to trigger Article 16 and risk full confrontation with Brussels, Berlin, and Dublin, the danger is that it looks like a highly one-sided behavior without the support of those most affected.

In fact, in the weighted LucidTalk poll, only 39% of respondents believed that the use of Article 16 was reasonable.

As Hayward observed: “Given that the future of the agreement is largely in the hands of the British government, the fact that the opinions of MPs are so inconsistent with the opinions of voters in Northern Ireland is worrying. What Lord Rost decides to do—especially on the issue that triggers Article 16—will have a huge and direct impact on the economy, politics and society of Northern Ireland.”

More Brexit stories not to be missed

U.S. has Beyond the EU As the main destination in the UK Financial Services According to a report by the industry lobby group TheCityUK, export.At the same time, Brooke Masters wrote this week that the competition between the London and Amsterdam stock exchanges has not caught the point-Europe is Stay in the dust The performance of the US, China, and Hong Kong markets in stock trading, corporate bond issuance, and almost all other important indicators.

The UK plans to give industry an additional two years to implement the new post-Brexit security system ChemicalsThis move is the latest in a series of delays in implementing post-Brexit plans, many of which duplicate the existing EU security system because I report this week.

The British government must put down the loudspeaker and pick up the phone to start Establish a new relationship with Europe This can be used as a basis A powerful global UK, Argued that David Manning, the former British ambassador to Washington, NATO, and Israel, and Jonathan Powell, who served as Tony Blair’s chief of staff from 1995 to 2007.

Can the EU’s 300 billion euros Global gateway Infrastructure investment projects Competitor China’s “One Belt One Road” initiative launched last week?Martin Sandb Believe it can But it said that the EU must clearly articulate the interests of partner countries. He said that for now, “it looks like a list of unrelated construction sites.”