2:00PM Water Cooler 12/6/2021 | Naked Capitalism
Author: Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Patient reader, I can’t get away My yellow wading In time, so this is a skeleton water cooler with only standing elements. Otherwise, talk about it yourself! ——Lambert
Today’s Bird Song
I really like these finches; there are so many! There is no doubt that Darwin has the same feeling, a thousand times stronger!
Big rebound. Still walking surreptitiously. (I didn’t say, because it’s too obvious. If Bubba we mean the South, then Bubba does a great job on vax.)
59.6% of people in the United States have been fully (dually) vaccinated (CDC data, as of December 2. Mediocre by world standardsAs of this Monday, it is slightly lower than Estonia and slightly higher than Taiwan in the Financial Times rankings). There is no change compared to last week, but I think this is a holiday data issue.
Number of cases By U.S. region:
Return to normal and move towards a new peak, just like last year. I added a black anti-Trumpist “Fauci Line”.
At least, the official statement is “Covid is behind us”, or the pandemic will be “End of January“(Gottlieb), or “I know some people don’t seem to want to give up this wonderful pandemic, but do you know? ended” (Bill Maher) Obviously there is a problem. (This graph is a 7-day average, so changes in direction will only be shown when the train is actually rolling.)
I speculate that one of the sources of the idea that Covid is about to disappear is the CDC’s modeling center (its prediction seems to be used to justify the school’s reopening). This is the current version of the CDC Modeling Center chart, Which aggregates the results of the eight models in the four scenarios. The last run (“round 9”) occurred on August 30, 2021, and the current case data (black Dotted line) ), including the average value predicted by the aggregation model (black line). I usefully emphasized the case data discussed above:
Now there is a Thanksgiving drop. (Note that the highlighted case data lags behind the Johns Hopkins University data displayed first.) Now, it can be said that the upward trend of the case data (black dotted line) is still within the tolerance of the model; it does not meet the model’s tolerance The average value (black line), but it stays in the gray area (aggregate forecast). Similarly, we see the place where the upward trend of case data is predicted (lower right quadrant) much later than where we are now. It is too early to say “Damn, CDC, your model is broken”; but it is too early to consider their possibilities. The case data still seems to be trying to break through the gray area. We will see.
MWRA (Boston area) wastewater testingAnd now update after Thanksgiving:
I marked the previous peak with yellow and the current peak with the black “Fauci line”. When students return after the Thanksgiving holiday, there has been a significant increase in both 2020 and 2021. The 2021 jump starts from a higher baseline. Now we will see how high it is. It’s hard to know how pessimistic it is, but the sound engineer’s guess is that this year’s peak will exceed 2020.
Massachusetts Department of Water Resources The (MWRA) service area includes 43 cities in and around Boston, including not only multiple school systems, but also several large universities. Since Boston attaches great importance to education, I think this may be a good leading indicator of Covid’s widespread dissemination in schools.
This is more normal and more consistent with the rest of the data; I think the previous versions are all products of the CDC algorithm.
Hospitalized (CDC Community Profile), also on December 2:
I usefully highlight the state where the “trend” arrow points to yellow, and the orange state that points vertically. Google said that at 9:35 am Eastern Standard Time, the temperature in Texas is 51.8 degrees Fahrenheit, so the hospitalization rate there is rising. I think the South is generally not due to winter conditions.
mortality rate(Our data world):
806,409. Back to normal. I added a black “Fauci Line”. At this rate, I don’t think we will break the million mark before the new year.
Too many deaths (Total, not only from Covid), now updated:
It’s hard to believe that we don’t have too many deaths now, but if so, we will be lucky. (The CDC explained that there is a data lag).
(Supplement: I know Bad data. This is America. Needless to say, this is a public health disaster. Public health agencies have a responsibility to take care of public health, not the health of certain preferred political factions. He also added: I like mortality because it can roughly tell me that if I end up admitted to the hospital, I might be at risk. )
New coronary pneumonia cases Source of historical variants, Plus a supplement from the think tank:
The rise of South Africa appears to be linear.Remember this is Logarithmic scale. Sorry for the confusion on the left. No matter how I fix it, it will not disappear.
contact information: Readers, please feel free to contact me via lambert [UNDERSCORE] Bondage [DOT] current [AT] Yahoo [DOT] com, with (a) links, even better (b) resources that I should manage regularly, (c) how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal, and (d) know how to send me plant images . Vegetables are fine! Fungi and corals are regarded as honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, put it in parentheses at the beginning of the message: (so). Otherwise, I will use your initials for anonymization. See the previous water cooler (with plants) here. Today’s factory (IM):
IM wrote: “I took the photo in the first atmospheric river in the fall, in Cypress Mountain, north of Vancouver. The flow in the picture is usually not a flow. Is the blurred branch on the left a defect, or is it an increase in motion? I don’t have a tripod. The forest is very dark. All the concept of depth of field disappeared, and I kept still with the aperture wide open for long exposures.” I think the handheld device is quite impressive!
Readers, I can use more plants, so if you can send some photos to the address below, that would be great! I really want to see photos of harvests or completed projects to inspire people to plan for spring in winter. There are still leaves? Thanks!
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