Highlights of Employment Day: By November, employment growth in 2021 will exceed 6 million
By November, this year’s employment growth may exceed 6 million, making us hopeful for a full recovery by the end of 2022. Before the employment report is released on Friday, I want to compare this recovery at a much slower pace than the recovery from the Great Recession. Spoiler alert: If we continue to maintain the average employment growth we have seen in 2021-581,600 people per month-we will return to pre-pandemic labor market conditions by December 2022 (and also absorb population growth). This rate of employment growth will be more than twice that of the strongest 10-month period since the Great Recession (employment growth of 4.9% vs. 2.3%).
In October, employment growth was 531,000.Even as job growth slowed in late summer Delta-driven cases increased fivefold, The overall pace of recovery is promising.As early as June, my colleague Josh Bivens and I wrote that by the end of 2022, the health of the labor market before COOVID needs to be created. 504,000 jobs per month From May 2021 to December 2022. As of 2021, employment growth has averaged 581,600 jobs, with an increase of 665,500 jobs per month since May.
Restoring the health of the labor market before COVID means more than just adding the remaining 4.2 million jobs. Let us go back to February 2020.It also means that we have added enough jobs to absorb the population growth since then, which allows us to reach the current job shortage 5.5 millionContinuing the current population growth rate of over 16 years old until 2022 means adding approximately 67,000 jobs per month in the next 14 months (November 2021 to December 2022). It can be said that given the large number of baby boomers, including many retired workers, this overestimates the growth rate of the working-age population. However, even at the current pace, the recovery is expected to reach this benchmark by December 2022. Achieving the goal of the end of 2022 may enable the US economy to reach an unemployment rate of 4.0% by mid-2022, even after absorbing a higher level of unemployment, labor force participation.
Since the beginning of 2021, employment growth has been much faster than the average level we saw during the post-Great Recession recovery period, when Pursue austerity Lead to slow recovery. During this period, the monthly employment growth rate averaged 1.6% (expressed as an annualized rate). The fastest 10-month employment growth rate in the entire period was 2.3% in 2014.It only took a full 10 years to get back to the low unemployment rate before 2008, even when it regained this low unemployment rate in 2017, partly because of labor force participation. Still frustrated.
In the last 10 months (since January 2021), the monthly employment growth rate averaged 4.9%. The Biden administration’s US rescue plan has promoted this faster growth. The impact of the plan has been significantly weakened in the past few months, with no additional economic impact payments, and enhanced insurance benefits due. However, the expanded child tax credit will certainly continue to play a vital role in supporting unemployed families (for example, reducing undernourishment), although it currently expires at the end of 2021. Given that fiscal stimulus measures are coming to an end this year, even if long-term investment is provided in the much-needed “Better Rebuild Act”, it is vital for Fed policymakers to allow the economy to continue to recover without adopting austerity measures such as raising interest rates.
Of course, most of the bumps on the road to recovery so far have been caused by the ebb and flow of the pandemic. With the recent emergence of omicron variants, there are more uncertainties about the future economic conditions. And, while welcoming a quick return to the labor market conditions before the pandemic, we must not exaggerate the miracles of the labor market before the pandemic. Before the pandemic, the unemployment rate of black workers was higher than that of white workers today. There is a wide gap in wage levels and occupational segregation is rampant. It is difficult for parents to obtain high-quality childcare services, and millions of people live in poverty. We need to continue to invest in our physical and human capital infrastructure to restore growth faster and stronger.
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