CBC Poll: The results let us know who the hesitating vaccine is in Alberta

This column is the views of data scientist John Santos (John Santos).For more information CBS opinion column, See FAQ.

The day when Alberta expanded the scope of the vaccine to people over 30 years of age, More than 100,000 people registered. This is good news that the province urgently needs. Highest number of COVID-19 cases per capita In North America.However, the latest CBC Calgary: The Way Forward Survey Shows 20% of Albertans Adopted a wait-and-see attitude Vaccination, another 14% said they refused to vaccinate directly.

Although it is difficult to explain exactly why everyone is hesitant about vaccines, there is a clear pattern of who is hesitant about vaccines. Moreover, these patterns indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has become politicized.

But before we observe these trends, the important point about methodology is in order. Most survey companies report a series of pairwise tables (often called a crosstab or pivot table) to show the relationship between one variable and another.

This type of analysis usually reveals many interesting patterns. However, it is difficult to separate which of those patterns are “real patterns” (signals) and which are false (noise).

Separate signal from noise

For example, anti-COVID restriction emotions and vaccine hesitation seem to be More prominent in rural Alberta.Elsewhere, political attitudes are related to vaccine hesitation Academic Research with In the press. The problem is that rural residents are more conservative than urban residents, so it depends more on people’s attitudes towards vaccines-where do they live or what are their values?

To solve this problem, I used a method called regression analysis, which allows us to study the relationship between the result of interest (vaccine hesitation) and the factors that may predict the result (region, education level, voting intention, etc.) relationship. ), while controlling the influence of all other factors.

The figure below shows the results of a model that uses region, gender, age, education, income, and employment status to predict vaccine hesitancy. The model has gained the benefits of COVID-19, economic conservatism, populism, and political self Positioned and reported voting intentions.

The most important factor is populism. We use four categories to measure: populist trust in experts; prefer strong leadership to debate and deliberation; support increased use of referendum and referendum; and believe in politics The family will soon lose touch with the people after they are elected.

People who strongly disagree with someone have a 50/50 chance of vaccine hesitation, while those who strongly disagree with someone have only an 8% chance. Another way to understand this is that all other things being equal, the Albertans with the largest population are on average 6.25 times more hesitant about vaccines than the Albertans with the fewest vaccines.

It is also important to see where you are within the political boundaries of the left and right. Albertans on the far right have a 43% chance of being a vaccine acumen, while Albertans on the far left have only a 17% chance.

Education is important

Another interesting finding is that education is more important than votes. From this, I mean that the difference in the probability of vaccine hesitation between the highest and the lowest educated people (21 percentage points) is greater than the difference in the probability of vaccine hesitation between the various supporters (approximately 10 percentage points).

Finally, although it is not shown here, once we control other factors, there is no relationship between economically conservative values ??and indecision. The so-called “economic conservatism” refers to the general tendency of people to lower levels of market supervision and government intervention.

We measure this with two questions: whether one believes that job creation should be left to the private sector, and whether they believe in believe flow economics. Although people who strongly agree with the two are five percent more likely to hesitate about the vaccine than those who strongly disagree (33% vs. 28%), we cannot be sure that this difference is statistically zero. .

So what does this mean?

These results indicate that the subtleties in the relationship between political orientation and vaccine attitudes are often lost in public discussions.

The media has expressed great concern about the hesitation of vaccines and the increase in suspicion of COVID. correct. However, although these empirical patterns are easy to observe, this more detailed analysis shows that it is not economically focused “conservatism” that promotes vaccine resistance.If this were the case, we would not see outstanding conservatives release photo They themselves received the COVID-19 vaccine.

On the contrary, the important factors actually include populism ( Occurs on the left and right Side of the political spectrum) and left and right ideologies in abstract thought or Symbolic feel. This form of ideology has little to do with what a person believes, but is more related to a person’s belief that he and others “fit” in the political world.

These findings echo earlier research Overturned the popular hypothesis Before COVID, those worried about vaccines were a group of left-leaning hippies.Moreover, there are more extensive studies showing that the biased processing of information is As common as on the left and right.

If vaccines are the way out of the pandemic, then our society will need to convince as many people as possible that they are safe and effective. The good news is that vaccines are actually a problem, and there is a lot in common between the left and the right. However, people who are on the fence between acceptance and hesitation (many of whom may be conservatives with moderate populist tendencies) may need to downplay them in order to get them to do the right thing for the collective good.

Vaccine rejecters who are totally unacceptable. However, if they are not demonized by radical militants and confused with super populists who refuse vaccination (and refuse COVID), they may reach the wall nanny.

This random survey of 1,200 Albertans conducted by CBC News was conducted between March 15 and April 10, 2021, and was conducted by Edmonton-based Trend Research Corporation. Research on Janet Brown’s Viewpoint. This sample represents the region, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, which is 19 times 20. For the subset, the margin of error is larger.

The survey uses a hybrid approach that involves contacting survey respondents over the phone and giving them the option to complete the survey at another more convenient time or receive an email link and complete the survey online.

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