A popular shorthand in public policy holds that more joblessness means more crime. Suzuki Law Offices conducted a study that stress-tested that claim against the Covid period—a rare natural experiment in extreme labor disruption. Their conclusion: the link is conditional, inconsistent, and often overshadowed by other forces. Using national and state data from 2019 to 2023, the study tracks how crime patterns zigged while unemployment zagged.

Full report: Is Crime Linked to Unemployment?

A Tale of Two Curves

Pre-pandemic 2019 ended with unemployment at 3.67%. Within weeks of the April 2020 lockdowns, the rate spiked to 14.8%. Nevada closed 2020 at 13.5%—worst in the nation.

If the stereotype held, crime would have climbed in tandem. Instead, the country saw divergence: homicides soared nearly 30% in 2020, yet property crime fell to its lowest since 1990. Nevada mirrored this split—violent and property crime declined even as homicides rose—suggesting that opportunity, mobility, and social strain pulled crime in different directions at once.

Recovery Without Reversion

By 2023, unemployment cooled to 3.7%, echoing 2019 levels. Crime didn’t simply “revert to normal”:

• Violent crime dipped 3% in 2023; homicides declined 12%.
• Motor vehicle theft surged 13% from 2020 to 2023.
• Property crime rebounded in many states despite falling unemployment.

Consider California: unemployment improved from 10.1% (2020) to 4.7% (2023). Yet in 2023 the state ranked 6th for violent crime and broke into the top 10 for property crime—positions it didn’t hold in 2020. Economic recovery did not equate to uniform safety gains.

Geography Matters

Violent crime clusters persisted:

• 2020: Alaska (837.8 per 100k), New Mexico (778.2), Tennessee (672.7)
• 2023: New Mexico (749.3), Alaska (726.3), Tennessee (628.2)

Property crime leaders in 2023, New Mexico and Washington, both exceeded 2,800 per 100k. Washington’s trajectory shows why single-variable explanations fall short: unemployment dropped from 8.5% to 4.2% (2020–2023), yet violent crime rose 20%, and property crime remained elevated relative to national averages.

Longer Arcs Tell Different Stories

Zooming out reveals divergent decade-long paths. Violent crime increased sharply in:

• South Dakota: +188% (2012–2022)
• Montana: +125%
• New Mexico: +120%

But since the early 1990s, several large states posted steep declines:

• Florida: –78.1% (1991–2022)
• Illinois: –72.4%
• New Jersey: –68.0%
• California: –54.2%

These mixed trajectories underscore that crime is multi-causal and time-dependent.

What’s Rising Now

Category specifics cut against simplistic theories. Auto theft exploded: California logged 208,668 stolen vehicles in 2023, with Texas (115,013) and Florida (46,213) trailing. Burglaries concentrated in New Mexico (604 per 100k), Washington (563), and Louisiana (497.8). Such spikes coexisted with a 3% decline in violent crime and a 12% drop in homicides in 2023.

Policy Implications

Suzuki Law’s analysis rejects a one-size-fits-all unemployment-crime narrative. Economic cycles matter, but they share the stage with public health disruptions, local enforcement priorities, court capacity, community supports, and everyday mobility patterns. Policymakers should target specific crime types (e.g., auto theft) with tailored strategies, rather than assuming job growth alone will suppress offending. Likewise, social safety nets and public health responses can dampen the conditions that turn shocks into sustained harm.

Bottom line: There is no definitive nationwide causal tie between unemployment and crime in the 2019–2023 period. Recessions don’t automatically fuel property crime, and recoveries don’t guarantee safer streets. Effective public safety policy starts with this complexity—not a cliché.