Sweden’s right-wing parties are hoping to oust the ruling Social Democrats in Sunday’s general election, relying on the far-right’s support for the first time in a tight race where crime is high on the agenda.

The anti-immigrant and nationalist Sweden Democrats have long been treated as pariahs on the Scandinavian country’s political stage, but they have gradually been assimilated into the right-wing bloc in recent years.

Recent opinion polls suggest they could rise to become the second largest party in Parliament – meaning their support is essential if the right is to form a government.

Sweden, currently in the delicate process of joining NATO, has been governed since 2014 by the Social Democrats, who have dominated Swedish politics since the 1930s.

Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, who took office just nine months ago after seven years as finance minister, enjoys strong support from voters.

Around 55 percent want her to remain in office, compared with 32 percent for her Conservative Moderate challenger Ulf Kristersson, according to a poll from late August.

Andersson has earned the voters’ respect for guiding the country with a steady hand, leading it to a long-lost bid for NATO membership in May after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

By then, Sweden had been militarily non-aligned for two centuries.

Most polls put the left and right blocs at an impasse, with the left credited with 49.1 to 50.1 percent of voter support and the right 49.2 to 49.9 percent.

In forming a government, the Social Democrats can count on the support of the Greens, the Left and the Centre, while the right-wing bloc is made up of the Moderates, the Christian Democrats, the Liberals and the Sweden Democrats.

However, both blocs are riddled with internal divisions that will make the process of forming a government difficult.

The campaign was dominated by issues close to right-wing voters, with crime, immigration and skyrocketing electricity prices overshadowing welfare and the economy.

“Inflation has skyrocketed and so has crime and shootings and these are contextual factors that the right-wing opposition should benefit from,” Patrik Ohberg, a political scientist at the University of Gothenburg, told AFP.

Sweden is battling escalating gang shootings attributed to struggles over drug and gun markets, and the country now tops European statistics for gun deaths.

While the violence was once contained in places frequented by criminals, it has spread to public spaces such as parks and shopping malls, raising concern among ordinary Swedes in a country long known as safe and peaceful.

Reaching out to the mother of a 12-year-old girl who was killed by stray bullets in a gang-related shooting in 2020, Andersson and Kristersson both lamented the escalating violence during a televised debate on Wednesday.

“No other country in Europe has what we have,” said Kristersson.

“What we’re seeing in Sweden is terrible,” Andersson agreed.

Since January 1, 48 people have been killed by guns in Sweden, three more than in all of 2021. There are also frequent bombings of houses and cars and grenade attacks.

The end of the political isolation of the Sweden Democrats and the prospect of making it the largest right-wing party is “an enormous change in Swedish society,” said Anders Lindberg, editorial editor of left-wing tabloid Aftonbladet.

Emerging from a neo-Nazi movement at the end of the 1980s, the Sweden Democrats entered parliament in 2010 with 5.7 percent of the votes.

The party’s anti-immigration stance and defense of Swedes’ cherished welfare state has resonated with the working class and pensioners.

Its rise has been accompanied by a large influx of immigrants, with the country of 10 million taking in nearly half a million asylum seekers in a decade.

While Kristersson remains Andersson’s challenger for the post of prime minister, it would be a major blow for him if the far right overtook the moderates as the strongest party on the right.

If the right-wing bloc won a majority, the Sweden Democrats could demand cabinet posts instead of just providing informal support in parliament.

“We want to have maximum influence, so it’s clear that our starting point is the government,” Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Akesson told AFP.

“Otherwise it will be expensive for the government to have us on board.”

Opening the door to the Sweden Democrats could prove a costly gamble for Kristersson.

“If the moderates lose the election and become the third strongest party, they will change the party leader,” Jan Teorell, a professor of political science at Stockholm University, told AFP.