The author of this article is the former editor of The Economist and the co-director of The Economist magazine. Global Post-Pandemic Policy Committee

In this affluent north, vaccines and remedial forms are expected to be provided this summer. Northerners are divided into those who are satisfied with their country’s vaccine plan, those who are depressed, those who are optimistic about the “twenties rant”, and those who worry that the light at the end of the tunnel will be strangled by the mutant strain. But we have a common feeling that the worst may be over. Socially and locally, this may be correct.

However, given the disaster in India, the death toll in Latin America and The resurgence of the virus in Southeast Asia. Politically and globally, serious challenges lie ahead.

During the 2008 financial crisis, most Western governments turned a blind eye: they learned the lessons of the 1930s, saved the banking system, and avoided a new depression. There is even effective global cooperation. But in the medium term, they have failed to face increasing inequality, frustrated real income, and various estrangements, which have led to populism, nationalism, Brexit, and leaders such as Donald Trump. Election of people. By 2020, relations among the world’s major powers will be in their worst state since the Cold War.

With Covid, it is expected to become the “highlight” of baseball coaches Yogi Berra once said. So far, the public has largely avoided health crises and has won praise for taxpayer-funded relief efforts that poor countries cannot afford. The governments of rich countries are likely to follow tactical success again and fall into trouble. The strategy failed. The weighing is as difficult as after 2008. When these trade-offs were debated on the Global Post-Pandemic Policy Committee, six main themes emerged.

First, the human and economic costs of this epidemic are so great that it makes national investment in supporting certain public goods a breeze. The most obvious situation is vaccine production. The United States, the United Kingdom, and China realized this right, the European Union defeated it, and Japan made a complete mistake. But it’s not too late. The capacity of the vaccine is still too small to quickly vaccinate the world and future booster vaccines and hopeful nasal vaccines and oral vaccines.

Another neglected global public good that urgently needs state funding is the establishment of monitoring laboratories and detection systems for future zoonotic diseases. There are too few such viruses in the world, especially in places where the viral transmission from wild life to humans is most likely, or even inevitable.

The second point is to reduce public expenditure: Violation of consensus, Our committee insists that high sovereign debt levels are indeed important, and even if interest rates are low, the risk of inflation must be seriously considered. Economic recovery is not only a problem for the next two years, but if we do not develop new, politically dangerous crises (such as the crisis that occurred in the Eurozone in 2010-12), we need to take a long-term perspective.

Therefore, although the government should not quickly switch to austerity policies, it does need to transition from welfare transfers from consumption and increased debt to investments aimed at increasing productivity and growth. Accelerating the transition to green technologies should account for a large part of this. Smart regulation, including minimum wages and reformed labor institutions, needs to play a larger role than remittances in dealing with inequality.

Fourth, urgent attention must be paid to the sovereign debt of poor and middle-income countries, which are plagued by fragile public finances and delayed vaccination. The sharp rise in the dollar interest rate driven by inflation may trigger a crisis. Investment in vaccine production capacity and further large donations to the Covax program from poor countries will be part of the answer.But an international agreement must be reached on debt restructuring, similar to Brady Plan In the early 1990s.

Fifth, efforts to establish such an agreement or to cooperate on other issues will prove how the divided and hostile relations between major powers have developed. The need to call for cooperation is not limited to communicating virtues, but should also be clearly focused on the common provision of important public goods: vaccinations, surveillance, debt, and climate. The focus must be: talk where possible, and act with allies where necessary.

Finally, perhaps the most important message is that we must start from today with an eye on the threats of the future, including new epidemics, bioterrorism, cyber threats, and the biggest threats. The simplest but the most difficult lesson of 2020-21 is that there are no parsnips for good words about disaster prevention capabilities. Action must be taken to place preparations at the core of the national security plan and to include protected routes in the national budget. This is essential. Now is the time to prepare for the next threat.