The complexity of firearm-related crime in the U.S. is escalating, and with it comes a demand for smarter enforcement and data-informed policymaking. Suzuki Law Offices’ recent breakdown of trace data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) offers a clear and actionable view into the modern gun landscape. For law enforcement agencies and legislators, these findings represent more than just statistics they offer a strategic roadmap for crime prevention and public safety.
The Rising Tide of Trace Activity
In just six years, firearm trace requests have surged by 52%, with law enforcement submitting nearly 3 million requests between 2017 and 2023. The 2023 total of 654,064 requests marks the highest annual figure to date. This growth isn’t just reflective of increased gun crime; it’s indicative of expanding reliance on trace tools like eTrace, which help officers track the path of a weapon from legal sale to criminal use.
The rise in trace volume signals both the challenge and potential in modern firearm policing. As more departments integrate digital tools, the effectiveness of national tracing strategies improves yet the data also reveals major vulnerabilities in how and where firearms are diverted from legal channels.
The Policy Implications of Shorter Time-to-Crime Windows
Suzuki Law’s analysis highlights one of the most critical red flags for policymakers: the steadily shrinking time-to-crime (TTC). In 2017, the median TTC was 4.2 years. By 2023, it had dropped to 2.9 years. Shorter TTC windows suggest faster gun diversion from the point of sale to the streets an alarming trend for law enforcement.
This drop demands urgent policy responses. Potential strategies include mandatory waiting periods, stricter oversight of first-time buyers, and rapid flagging of high-risk purchases for additional scrutiny. Lawmakers may also consider increased penalties for straw purchases and broader adoption of red-flag laws that could disrupt these short-term diversions.
Machinegun Conversions and Ghost Guns: Enforcement Under Pressure
Between 2019 and 2023, recoveries of machinegun conversion devices spiked by 784%. In 2023 alone, over 4,500 of these devices were confiscated. Their appeal lies in simplicity: compact and easily attached, they transform semi-automatics into fully automatic firearms.
Alongside these are the nearly 27,500 privately made firearms (PMFs) recovered in 2023 up from just 1,629 in 2017. Known as “ghost guns,” these weapons lack serial numbers and often bypass background checks. For police, this surge represents a two-fold challenge: not only are the guns untraceable, but they’re also becoming more prevalent in serious violent crimes.
To combat this, law enforcement agencies need greater funding for tech-enabled tracing tools and forensic labs. At the policy level, there’s a growing need for comprehensive PMF regulation, such as serialization requirements and background checks for parts kits.
Cross-State and Cross-Border Coordination
Another strategic insight from the Suzuki Law study is the prevalence of interstate and international gun movement. Of the 2.3 million crime guns traced, 28% were recovered in a different state from where they were purchased. TTC for these interstate transfers was notably higher four years versus 2.1 years for intrastate crimes suggesting longer pipelines but still deadly outcomes.
Further, the report highlights that 43% of U.S.-origin guns recovered in Mexico in 2023 were traced back to Texas alone. Arizona and California were also significant contributors. These trafficking pipelines largely support cartel operations, reinforcing the need for stronger U.S.-Mexico intelligence sharing and border interdiction policies.
Regional coordination between state and federal agencies can improve tracing continuity and interdiction success. Expanding multi-jurisdictional task forces similar to fusion centers could amplify impact without burdening local departments.
Dealer Oversight and Firearm Loss Prevention
In 2023, nearly 15,000 firearms were reported lost by licensed dealers. In states like Texas and Florida, where gun sales are high-volume, these losses are both a logistical issue and a public safety risk. With private gun thefts also exceeding 1 million between 2019 and 2023, trace data makes a strong case for enhanced regulation.
Lawmakers may need to consider annual compliance checks, better inventory systems for dealers, and mandatory loss reporting protocols. Improved dealer accountability can dramatically reduce the number of guns slipping into criminal circulation.
Leveraging Trace Data for Tactical Advantage
Perhaps the most compelling value of trace data is its potential to inform local law enforcement strategy. Knowing that pistols, especially Glock 9 mm models, account for nearly 75% of all recovered firearms allows departments to better allocate resources, target hot spots, and shape patrol protocols.
Similarly, identifying neighborhoods most affected by multiple-sale traces or repeat crime gun recoveries can help focus community policing efforts and disrupt emerging trafficking networks before they grow.
Conclusion: From Reactive to Proactive Policing
The Suzuki Law study makes one point clear: America’s firearm landscape is evolving quickly, and law enforcement needs data-driven strategies to keep up. Trace data offers a rare opportunity to pivot from reactive to proactive policing, from merely responding to gun violence to anticipating and intercepting it.
Smart policy and better enforcement aren’t mutually exclusive, they’re complementary. With the right investment in technology, cross-agency coordination, and legislative support, the U.S. can turn this flood of data into a force for public safety.
