With megacities in lockdown, infections rising and sporadic protests, China’s Covid-19 policy has reached a stalemate as authorities continue to try to contain the virus while trying to keep the economy afloat.

China is the only major economy still trying to contain the spread of the virus domestically, shutting down entire cities and strictly quarantining contacts of infected patients.

A raft of new rules announced by Beijing earlier this month appeared to signal a shift from a strategy of easing quarantine requirements for entry into the country and simplifying a system to designate high-risk areas.

Still, daily cases caused by the evasive Omicron variant have approached nearly 30,000 — low compared to most other major countries but peaking since the chaotic days of Shanghai’s tough lockdown in the spring.

This has caused whiplash among China’s city dwellers as officials first eased restrictions before reinstating curbs, while claiming to refine the zero-Covid strategy personally championed by President Xi Jinping.

And the flip-flop unsettled investors and rattled global financial markets.

Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP it’s too early to tell if the new rules “signal that central leadership is ready to abandon zero-Covid anytime soon.”

“Local governments’ incentive structure has not been fundamentally changed by the new adjustments,” Huang said, noting that lower-level officials would still be held accountable for outbreaks.

Chinese officials this month have responded to the rising infections with vague and seemingly contradictory messages that have caused confusion among the public.

Several cities canceled mandatory regular Covid tests last week, with some being scaled back in a matter of days.

One of the capital’s largest districts, Chaoyang, abruptly closed test stands in its commercial zones earlier last week with a feeble explanation that it was in line with the central government’s new Covid rules.

The closures were reversed the next day after local media reported office workers spent hours searching residential areas in search of an open testing booth as public spaces tightened testing requirements over a surge in cases.

Public anger at seemingly arbitrary restrictions and sudden disruptions has erupted in numerous protests in recent months, including this month in southern China’s Guangzhou when hundreds of residents took to the streets.

“Most officials in China know that the policy as it is no longer makes sense, but no one can fail to implement it as it is Xi’s policy and must be upheld,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, told AFP.

“We see some adjustments being made without sufficient clarity,” he said.

Alfred Wu, an associate professor at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said there was a growing tension between the goals of the central government and those of local officials.

“The anger is actually coming from ordinary people and also from local officials,” whose resources and time are mostly devoted to zero-Covid measures, Wu told AFP.

Another year without Covid could mean that “the Chinese economy will derail and social tensions may reach tipping points that threaten regime stability and may even cause a legitimacy crisis,” said the CFR’s Huang.

But opening too suddenly could also jeopardize stability, as the country “could face a virus wave, leading to mass deaths and quickly overwhelming its fragile health system,” he told AFP.

China has yet to approve more effective mRNA vaccines for public use, and only 85 percent of adults over 60 had received two doses of household vaccines by mid-August, according to Chinese health officials.

Nomura analysts said Monday the road to reopening could be “slow and bumpy.”

“Reopening could go back and forth as policymakers may relent after observing a rapid rise in cases and social disruption,” they said in a report.

They predicted a negative impact on GDP growth if Covid cases increase after the zero-Covid policy is lifted, as “a large percentage of the Chinese population may still believe that Omicron has a high mortality rate.”

Sending messages about the virus will be a major challenge for Chinese authorities in returning to normal.

“Ironically, the frightening propaganda about the virus and how other countries have fared worse than China is coming back to bite the CCP leaders who may actually now be bent on relaxing the very invasive and costly anti-Covid measures ‘ said Fei-Ling Wang. Professor of international affairs at Georgia Tech, told AFP.

“A quick turn to open up would risk losing face to the leaders,” he said.