In less than a year, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev violently crushed the worst unrest in his country’s history, neutralized his all-powerful predecessor and turned against Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Few expect surprises in the polls in the huge Central Asian country on Sunday as Tokayev’s victory is far from a foregone conclusion.

The 69-year-old faces no real rivals in the former Soviet country, where critics remain silent and all five of his rivals are virtually unknown.

When he took office in 2019, the veteran diplomat expected to rule in the shadow and at the behest of his predecessor and mentor: Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had ruled since 1991.

Nazarbayev, who presided over Kazakhstan’s independence from the Soviet Union, retained the title “Elbasy” – the “head of the nation” in Kazakh.

This gave him great influence in politics and his clan retained control of the energy-rich country’s economy.

For two and a half years, Tokayev, a steady hand notorious for lacking charisma, played the role of a faithful successor.

That changed in January.

Protests erupted across the vast country, turning into violent riots and centered in Kazakhstan’s economic hub of Almaty.

Showing his ruthless side, Tokayev ordered law enforcement to “shoot” protesters. He also cut communications with the outside world and urged Moscow to send troops to help.

The deployment of Moscow-led “peacekeeping” forces quelled the uprising, which some observers believed may have led to Tokayev’s downfall.

The chaos ended with 238 dead in nine days.

Determined to consolidate his authority, Tokayev promptly told Putin that Russian soldiers had to withdraw.

And surprisingly, he broke with his mentor Nazarbayev, purged his clan of positions of authority and promised a “new and just Kazakhstan.”

The 80-year-old ex-leader was ousted, some relatives imprisoned and he was forced to publicly pledge allegiance to Tokayev.

In the process, the new leader announced reforms, a constitutional referendum and introduced a unified seven-year presidential term, triggering a snap election on November 20.

In a final nail driven into the coffin of the Nazarbayev era, the capital, which was renamed in honor of the dictator in 2019, got its Astana name back this September.

Although Tokayev purged Nazarbayev, the overhaul represents the liberalization of an authoritarian state.

“I’m not a utopian or a dreamer,” Tokayev said in June.

A seasoned civil servant, he has served as Secretary of State, Prime Minister and Speaker of the Senate.

Amirzhan Kosanov, Tokayev’s main rival in the 2019 presidential election, said the Kazakh leader remains a pure product of his predecessor’s regime.

“Nazarbayev’s shadow still hovers over Mr. Tokayev,” he told AFP.

Given the widespread poverty and corruption in the country, he did not rule out a repeat of the chaos in January 2022.

“History has given him an unenviable fate: he must cleanse the Augean stables,” he said, referring to Greek mythology to describe a necessary cleansing of the county and economy.

The veteran diplomat, who speaks fluent Chinese and English, has not only neutralized his political mentor.

He also had to keep the old master of Kazakhstan, the Kremlin, at a distance.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has renewed concerns in Kazakhstan that Moscow may have ambitions in the north of the country, home to some three million ethnic Russians.

Kazakhstan and Russia share a 7,500-kilometer border.

Tokayev clashed publicly with Putin during a visit to St. Petersburg in June, criticizing Moscow’s move to recognize Ukrainian separatist regions it has since claimed to annex.

Tokayev, sitting next to the Kremlin chief, said recognizing separatist authorities around the world would “lead to chaos”.

Four months later, when Putin announced the mobilization of tens of thousands of reservists, Tokayev opened the borders and welcomed a flood of Russians fleeing the army.

He urged the Kazakhs to “take care of them and ensure their safety.”

Despite January’s unrest, Tokayev is far from internationally isolated and has hosted a range of visitors this year – from EU chief Charles Michel to Pope Francis.

China’s Xi Jinping also made his first post-pandemic trip to Kazakhstan.

Even his rival Kozanov acknowledged that Tokayev’s “foreign policy is a success”.