Leaders of a divided world meet in Egypt Monday to tame the horrific global warming juggernaut as they face hurricane-force geopolitical crosswinds, including the war in Ukraine and economic turmoil.
Expectations are high for a world rightfully concerned about its climate-related future as deadly floods, heatwaves and storms around the world track worst-case climate scenarios.
The Nov. 6-18 gathering in the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh will also be dominated by the growing need for money from the virtually innocent poor nations to deal not only with future impacts but also those already claiming lives and the devastate economy.
UN chief Antonio Guterres said Thursday it was time for a “historic pact” between developed and emerging economies, with richer nations providing financial and technical assistance to help poorer ones accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
“If that pact doesn’t materialize, we’re doomed because we need to cut emissions, both in developed and emerging economies,” Guterres told reporters.
Last week, the UN warned that “there is no credible way” to limit the rise in global temperatures within the framework of the 1.5 degree Celsius Paris climate agreement.
While worst-case projections are less grim than they were a decade ago, current policies would still cause the Earth’s surface to warm by a catastrophic 2.8°C and as much as 2.4°C, even if countries meet all of their commitments to reduce carbon emissions under the Paris Agreement.
“There have been tense moments before,” said Alden Meyer, senior analyst at the E3G think tank, recalling other wars, the near collapse of the UN-led process in 2009 and Donald Trump’s 2016 ousting of the United States from the Paris agreement ripped out.
“But this is a perfect storm. It even spawned a new term: polycrisis,” said the 30-year climate veteran.
An even longer shadow over the negotiations in Egypt than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many experts say, is the further erosion of Sino-US ties, which have led to breakthroughs in climate diplomacy in the past.
– ‘Turning Point’ –
At last year’s COP26 in Glasgow, the world’s two largest economies clearly created a climate safe space with a joint statement.
But a visit to Taiwan by US Congress Chair Nancy Pelosi in August prompted Beijing to shut down bilateral climate channels. Sweeping restrictions imposed last month by the Biden administration on sales of high-end chip technology to China deepened the divide.
“We are at a turning point,” said Li Shuo, a Beijing-based policy analyst at Greenpeace International.
“If the policies are so bad that the world’s two biggest emitters don’t talk to each other, we won’t get to 1.5C.”
US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will attend the G20 summit in Bali days before the conclusion of talks in Egypt. Should the two leaders meet, “that dynamic would play back to Sharm el-Sheikh,” Li said.
Biden will arrive in Egypt and tout the landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which proposes nearly $400 billion — potentially double that — to accelerate the greening of the U.S. economy.
But general elections the day after the UN climate talks open could dampen US bragging rights if Republicans hostile to international climate action take over one or both houses of Congress.
Meanwhile, US inflation and a strong dollar have hurt indebted poor and emerging economies.
A bright spot at COP27 will come with the arrival of new Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who has vowed not to seek deforestation in the Amazon and to reverse the commodity policies of Jair Bolsonaro, who is set to step down on January 1.
– Money is important –
COP27 is likely to boil down to a trio of interlocking priorities: emissions, accountability and money.
The crucial question will probably be the creation of a separate capital pool for “Loss and Damage” – UN climate jargon for unavoidable and irreversible climate damage.
The United States and the European Union – fearing the creation of an open-ended reparations framework – have hesitated on this issue for years, questioning the need for a separate financial channel.
But patience is at an end.
“The success or failure of COP27 will be judged on whether there is agreement on a loss and damage financing facility,” said Munir Akram, Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN and chairman of the powerful G77+China negotiating bloc of more than 130 developing nations.
“Where there’s a will, there’s a way,” Akram told AFP in an interview.
Rich nations are also expected to set a timeline to allocate $100 billion a year to help developing countries green their economies and build their resilience to future climate change.
The pledge is already two years overdue and remains shy of $17 billion, according to the OECD.
Last year’s COP26 in Glasgow prioritized reducing carbon pollution, largely through side deals orchestrated by host Britain to curb methane emissions, halt deforestation, phase out fossil fuel subsidies and spur the transition to renewable energy .
Nations have agreed to review their carbon reduction pledges annually rather than just every five years, although in 2022 only a handful of nations have done so.
Guterres, meanwhile, will publish a critical assessment of the “net-zero” commitments made by companies, investors and local governments to become carbon neutral.
