After a bitterly divisive campaign and an inconclusive first-round vote, Brazil will select its next president on Sunday in a runoff between far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and veteran leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The sprawling South American giant of 215 million has braced itself for this moment for 18 months since the Supreme Court overturned the controversial corruption convictions that landed Lula in prison – a decision that paved the way for the once-popular former president ( 2003 -2010) to make a political comeback.
Ever since, it’s the charismatic but ailing ex-metal worker’s race to lose. And although Lula remains the leader with two tense days to go, experts say it’s entirely possible he could do just that.
Bolsonaro, the caustic hardline conservative dubbed the “tropical trump,” is 47 percent to 53 percent behind — versus a 21-point lead for Lula in May, according to a poll released Thursday by the Datafolha Institute.
Lula, who turned 77 on Thursday, and Bolsonaro, 67, will face off in a final debate on Friday night in what is likely to be a brutal last-ditch brawl.
“This race will go to the end,” said Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.
“Every last vote will count. I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on the result.”
Bolsonaro was seeking a new four-year term and defied pollsters’ predictions of a double-digit defeat in the first round of voting on Oct. 2 to trail just five points behind Lula, 48 percent to 43 percent.
His allies, meanwhile, scored big victories in congressional and gubernatorial elections, cementing the far-right’s status as a major force in Brazilian politics, regardless of who wins on Sunday.
– Threat of ‘permanent scar’ –
Bolsonaro emerged from the first lap looking confident he would come from behind.
But he appeared less certain in recent days, repeating his attacks on the electoral system – which he says is plagued by fraud – and saying he will only accept defeat if “nothing abnormal” exists.
Many fear a Brazilian repeat of the Capitol riots that rocked the United States following the 2020 electoral defeat of Bolsonaro’s political idol Donald Trump.
Bolsonaro’s campaign had already claimed “election fraud” before the vote, claiming that 150,000 of Bolsonaro’s publicly funded campaign ads were blocked on the radio.
Chief Electoral Judge Alexandre de Moraes dismissed the case on Wednesday, declaring it unfounded.
Analysts say Bolsonaro lacks the military, business and institutional support he would need to stage a power grab if he loses.
And “as we’ve seen in the US … it leaves a lasting scar on a country,” Winter said.
– Crapfest –
The last month of the campaign has descended into an orgy of mudslinging, particularly on social media, a crucial battleground.
Bolsonaro’s side accuses Lula of plotting to close churches, promoting “gender ideology” in schools and making a pact with Satan.
Lula’s side accuses Bolsonaro of pedophilia and cannibalism.
The filth has left little room for current issues such as the weak economy, the rampant destruction of the Amazon rainforest and the 33 million starving Brazilians.
Lula, who is running for his sixth presidential run, draws largely on the legacy of a turning point in the economic boom of the 2000s – but has presented few new ideas or concrete plans for Latin America’s largest economy.
And although the corruption charges that jailed him for 18 months have been overturned, he remains tainted by the aftermath of a massive corruption scandal at state oil company Petrobras.
Only the good memories count for the fans.
“We were for Lula then, we are for Lula now,” 25-year-old ranch hand Ana Gabriele dos Santos, whose family has long voted for the stalwart leftist, told AFP in Brazil’s rugged, semi-arid Sertao region in the impoverished northeast. a huge bastion of Lula support.
Bolsonaro, whose popularity has been battered by the carnage of Covid-19 and his denial response, now thrives on a slowly improving economy, a squandering of social spending and the Conservatives’ ardent support for his culture wars.
Supporters love its focus on “God, Country, Family and Freedom.”
“He’s just like us,” said businessman Gilberto Klais, who proudly displays a giant Bolsonaro bumper sticker in the green and yellow of the Brazilian flag in the southern state of Parana, a Bolsonaro bastion.
However, many Brazilians will vote for the candidate they hate less.
Brazil’s 156 million voters will cast their ballot from 8:00 a.m. (1100 GMT).
Polling stations close at 5 p.m., with results expected about two hours later.
