With less than two months until the African National Congress meets to elect a leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa looks weakened as he seeks to retain the helm of South Africa’s fragmented ruling party.
A scandal involving millions of dollars allegedly found tucked away in his luxurious farmhouse has tarnished the image of Ramaphosa, who was trumpeted as a clean pair of hands in 2018 after the Jacob Zuma era.
With the ANC conference approaching, analysts are examining the prospects for the embattled 69-year-old former union leader and business tycoon.
– Can he stay in power? –
Commentators agree that Ramaphosa has a good chance of remaining leader of the ANC, spearheading the fight against apartheid and South Africa’s ruling party since the advent of democracy in 1994.
He is “not in the strongest position but will likely win the race as there is no stronger[rival],” said Pearl Mncube, an analyst at Frontline Africa Advisory, a Pretoria-based political risk consultancy.
Ramaphosa’s opponents within the ANC have found fodder in the cash scandal that erupted in June.
The president is accused of hiding from police and tax authorities a 2020 burglary and cash heist from his farmhouse in northern Limpopo province.
“Groups opposed to Ramaphosa have heavily armed the scandal (and) the economic woes the country is facing,” Mncube said.
But “despite criticism… he still enjoys strong support within the party”.
Susan Booysen, a professor at the University of the Witwatersrand, agreed that “there’s still a pretty good chance Ramaphosa can make it”.
Political scientist Eusebius McKaiser said Ramaphosa was “probably fine”.
“But the level of certainty has gone down and the reason for that – although he’s clearly still the front runner – is his credibility (has been) damaged.”
– Who are its main competitors? –
Some candidates have thrown their names in the ring for leadership of the ANC.
Chief among them is Ramaphosa’s former Health Minister Zweli Mkhize, 66, who left the government last year for allegedly diverting Covid funds. He has denied the allegations.
Senior Cabinet Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, 73, former chair of the African Union Commission and Zuma’s ex-wife, who narrowly lost to Ramaphosa in the last vote more than four years ago, is another name touted.
But analysts say Ramaphosa, a former favorite of anti-apartheid hero Nelson Mandela, remains the most attractive candidate.
“All candidates are flawed and therefore there is no real threat,” said McKaiser.
“The reality is that despite all of the president’s weaknesses…compared to other candidates, he remains their best bet.”
– What about Zuma? –
Zuma, who faces corruption allegations over a 1990s gun deal and has just finished a 15-month sentence for snubbing an anti-graft investigation, has gone on the offensive.
He launched an unprecedented broadside against Ramaphosa over the weekend, accusing him of corruption and treason – an attack the timing of which was seen as a deliberate attempt to smear his successor.
McKaiser dismissed the diatribe as “the rant from someone who is desperate to be an influencer” and said it was unlikely to affect the outcome of the election.
“Zuma’s influence is less than he thinks,” he said.
Despite this, Zuma keeps a firm grip on many ANC radicals, allowing him to stir up resentment about entrenched poverty and inequality.
Ramaphosa “is still the strongest candidate, but there are going to be such weak years for the government and the ANC,” Booysen said.
This weakness could undermine any political drive to reform South Africa’s economy, analysts say. The country suffers from low growth, catastrophically high unemployment and a failing energy system that has led to rolling blackouts.
