Credit Suisse shares plunged to fresh lows on Monday, fueling growing fears and even hints that the bank could be experiencing a “Lehman Brothers moment,” despite pundits asserting it is too big to fail.
Switzerland’s second-largest bank saw its share price fall 11.5 percent to an all-time low of 3.518 Swiss francs ($3.563) per hit after a fresh volley of rumors surrounding the scandal-plagued bank.
The Bank of England is in contact with Swiss authorities to monitor Credit Suisse, British newspaper The Sunday Telegraph reported.
And the Financial Times daily said executives have been trying to reassure major customers and investors over the past few days about the bank’s liquidity and capital position amid concerns about its financial strength.
Credit Suisse boss Ulrich Koerner, who only took over the reins and the mammoth task of revitalizing the bank in August, sent an internal message to the workforce on Friday to allay their concerns.
In it he warned that “many factually inaccurate statements” would be made about the bank.
It remains unclear whether his memo helped calm the nerves of Credit Suisse employees, but it seems to have drawn more attention to the bank’s stock price’s dramatic swings in recent weeks and sparked further jitters among investors.
– ‘Conversion Plans’ –
Fears surrounding the “transformation plans” that Koerner is scheduled to present on October 27 have sent the bank’s shares into a tailspin, adding to their worries after two years of repeated scandals and crises.
The bank was particularly shaken last year by the collapse of British financial firm Greensill, in which four funds had invested around $10 billion, and then by the implosion of US fund Archegos, which cost it more than $5 billion.
Credit Suisse shares have lost 70 percent of their value since March 2021.
Credit Suisse shares, which are included in the Swiss bourse’s main index SMI, recovered mostly from the decline they suffered in Monday morning’s trading, ending the day down 0.9 percent at 3.94 Swiss francs .
Indicative of growing concerns, the price of so-called credit default swaps (CDS) on the bank’s bonds surged last week.
These derivative financial products are typically taken out by investors to protect against default – a deteriorating view of Credit Suisse’s creditworthiness.
The swaps now price in about a 23 percent chance that the bank will default on its bonds within five years, according to Bloomberg News, which nevertheless stresses they are “far from distressed.”
– “Lehman Brothers moment”? –
Social media, meanwhile, is buzzing with discussions about an upcoming “Lehman Brothers moment” surrounding the spectacular collapse of the giant US investment bank that sparked the 2008 global financial crisis.
However, many observers insist that the risk of a Credit Suisse implosion is low.
“Is it possible?” asked Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote, in a note.
“Yes, it’s possible, but highly unlikely.”
Credit Suisse is one of the world’s banks that was deemed “too big to fail” after the Lehman Brothers debacle and had to set aside large amounts of capital to weather future crises without affecting the rest of the banking sector.
Ozkardeskaya envisions three scenarios, including that the bank’s new head “works a miracle” and quickly strengthens Credit Suisse as promised, “and the bank survives and thrives until the next scandal.”
A second scenario sees Zurich Bank “become a nice takeover target and get eaten by another bank,” while the third sees it “saved by the Swiss government.”
– ‘buy time’ –
So far, the bank has not given any insight into the details of upcoming “transformation plans”, other than that they could involve asset sales.
But even those few details have raised concerns, with Jefferies analysts warning that “asset sales alone are unlikely to be the solution to the potential problem of a lack of capital.”
In this case, Credit Suisse would be “a forced seller,” they wrote in a statement, pointing out that this could “create price pressure.”
And while selling assets could “generate capital,” they warned it could also “reduce future revenue-generating capacity.”
But selling assets “could be a first step and buy time until stocks recover and the outlook improves,” according to the release.
In his memorandum on Friday, Körner emphasized the bank’s “strong capital base and liquidity position”.
“We are transforming Credit Suisse for a long-term, sustainable future – with significant value creation potential,” he wrote.