Italian election winner Giorgia Meloni may at first glance have much in common with ultra-conservative governments in EU states Poland and Hungary, but experts say any alliance could soon reach its limits in real politics.

Reaction to the strong result of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party on Sunday was muted by EU integration pillars such as Paris and Berlin, but Warsaw and Budapest gave hearty congratulations.

“We have never had a greater need for friends who share a vision and a common approach to Europe,” said the Hungarian government, while Poland praised Meloni’s “great victory”.

“Hungary and Poland are more than happy with this election, firstly because it eases the pressure on their own countries in the EU and secondly because it paves the way for a more united front,” said Yordan Bozhilov, director of the Bulgaria-based Corporate think tank Sofia Security Forum.

The Italian elections follow a Swedish poll that also produced an upsurge for the extreme right.

But with the far right in power in one of the largest countries and founding members of the EU, Hungary and Poland could be far less isolated in their battles with Brussels over rule of law issues.

In addition, Rome, Budapest and Warsaw are now about to converge on social issues, with anti-Islam, anti-abortion and anti-LGBT positions.

“Together we will defeat the cynical and spoiled Eurocrats who are destroying the European Union, breaking treaties, destroying our civilization and advancing the LGBT agenda!” Poland’s Deputy Agriculture Minister Janusz Kowalski tweeted in a message congratulating Meloni on Monday.

Meloni also shares her potential allies’ vision of a Christian, white Europe made up of sovereign nations.

“Hungary and Poland are countries that want to change the EU from within, and they don’t hide it. So far they have not succeeded, but an attempt will definitely be made to create a Rome-Budapest-Warsaw axis,” said Tara Varma, director of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But calls from such parties for a full exit from the EU have already weakened in recent years “given the absolute red flag that Brexit was,” she added.

Instead, the axis in Brussels could become a “spoiler, a spanner in the works”.

“One step forward, two steps back, they could prevent the EU from making progress while continuing to benefit from common funds,” Varma said.

A values-based front could, however, fail amid today’s overriding concerns about the war in Ukraine and the EU’s relations with Russia.

While Meloni has so far matched Warsaw in declarations of support for Ukraine and for EU sanctions on Russia over its neighbor’s invasion, Hungary’s leader Viktor Orban – who is close to President Vladimir Putin – is opposed.

“At some point, Meloni will have to choose between Poland and Hungary,” predicted Varma.

The leader of the Brothers of Italy is not expected to adjust her position to that of her younger coalition partners Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, who are more friendly towards Moscow.

“In terms of foreign policy, as far as we know, Meloni supports the sanctions against Russia, and the Italian brothers are closer to the Polish PiS (ruling party) than to the Hungarian Fidesz,” said Hungarian analyst Patrik Szicherle.

Meloni “sent the right messages in relation to Ukraine,” said Martin Quencez of the German Marshall Fund, pointing to Italy’s critical relationship with the US as a reliable NATO ally.

Once elected prime minister, she has “every reason to maintain good relations with Brussels and not go into open battle,” said Paolo Modugno, professor of Italian civilization at Sciences Po University in Paris.

Meloni “is very aware of the problems facing the Italian public, their inflation fears and the economic situation. What is urgent for them is to manage the crisis and not take any ideological risks,” he added.

Analysts believe that the choice of top ministers by the new government, particularly in the finance and foreign ministries, will give a clear signal of how Meloni intends to position itself in Europe.