As the invasion of Ukraine exhausts Russia’s forces, Moscow’s grip on its former Soviet backyard in the Caucasus and Central Asia is loosening with unpredictable consequences, experts say.

A recent flare-up in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan and deadly clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have shown how surprisingly little Russia currently has influence over the region that stretches from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea.

“The entire periphery of Russia is falling apart and it is obvious that there is nothing they can do to control it,” said a European diplomatic source, who asked not to be named.

A key example of Russia’s rapid reputational decline in the region is the inaction of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a regional pact, in the face of clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The CSTO, based in Moscow, brings together Russia and the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

In Armenia, angry protesters have protested the CSTO’s failure to help their country against Azerbaijan, blaming a Russia they previously viewed as their ally.

“Russia’s failure to honor its treaty obligation to protect Armenia signals the beginning of a new era in the region, where smaller rivals like Azerbaijan can dictate terms with a confidence unthinkable a year ago,” wrote Ben Dubov of CEPA, a US -American think tank.

“The first half of September 2022 may well go down in history as the fatal moment when Russia lost its ability to dictate terms in its former empire,” he said.

Waiting in the wings are China and Turkey, the other key players in the explosive region, as voices skeptical of Russia’s Ukraine adventure grow louder.

At a meeting this month of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Moscow-Beijing-led security group, China and India voiced criticism of the invasion of Ukraine. Several Central Asian countries have allowed pro-Ukrainian demonstrations.

“The CSTO’s weak response to the Azerbaijani attacks is fueling protests among Armenians who want their country to leave the Russian-controlled military bloc,” Moldovan researcher Denis Cenusa tweeted.

“We have to keep an eye on what’s happening in Armenia,” said Michael Levystone, Russia and Central Asia expert at IFRI, a French international relations think tank.

Before Moscow’s war on Kyiv, “it was strongly emphasized that Russia cannot be defeated,” said Murat Aslan of SETA, a Turkish research institution.

But now there is a possibility that minor conflicts will break out without Russia being able to influence the course of events.

“If Russia is defeated, everything will change,” Aslan said.

On the other hand, should Russia emerge victorious from Ukraine, the “psychological effect” would mean that Moscow could “implement any agenda” in the Caucasus, he said.

But when this is not the case, fault lines become more and more obvious.

For one thing, there is a lack of recognized and delimited geographic borders, which Moscow has never considered necessary. It treats the region as an administrative area rather than a group of truly independent countries.

“Almost half of the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is still undefined and that is at the root of the problem,” said Isabella Damiani, an expert in Central Asian geography at the University of Versailles in France.

Meanwhile, Turkey, a historic ally of Azerbaijan and present in both the Caspian and Black Sea regions, will benefit from Russia’s unusual inertia.

Like China promoting its Silk Road initiative, Turkey is quietly putting its chess pieces in place, particularly through the Organization of Turkish States (OTS), in which Ankara is its key player, Levystone said.

Turkey has military partnerships with all Central Asian governments, including Tajikistan – the only non-Turkish state in the region whose language is descended from Persian.

“The real question is whether OTS will turn into a politico-military alliance around Ankara,” Levystone said.

Aslan agreed, saying, “If Russia fails in Ukraine, this organization will become much more active.”