A mysterious hint on US television of an imminent prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine underscores Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unique role as a mediator and friend to both sides in times of war.

Erdogan flew to New York from a meeting in Uzbekistan with Russian President Vladimir Putin – his third in three months – to tell US viewers on Monday that the Kremlin “is ready to end this (war) as soon as possible.” break up”.

“Two hundred hostages will be exchanged by agreement between the parties,” Erdogan said in an interview, without disclosing any further details.

Putin’s decision less than two days later to partially call up reservists and raise the threat of nuclear war appeared to have undone Erdogan’s best intentions.

But an announcement late Wednesday that Russia and Ukraine would exchange about 200 prisoners helped confirm Erdogan’s efforts to walk a fine line and remain “neutral” in Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II.

The prisoner swap adds to a growing list of diplomatic successes that Erdogan is using to boast of his image as a global statesman nine months ahead of an election that polls show he could potentially lose.

“Turkish diplomacy has been impeccable since the beginning of the war,” noted France’s former US and UN ambassador Gerard Araud.

“She weighed her interests, struck a balance between the warring factions and, when necessary, decisively exploited the situation.”

Erdogan can now take credit for playing a direct role in orchestrating the only two tangible agreements between Moscow and Kyiv in the Seven-Month War.

A United Nations-backed deal signed in Istanbul in July resumed grain shipments from Ukraine across the Black Sea for the first time since Russia’s February 24 invasion.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the shipments “a beacon of hope” for famine-stricken parts of the world.

The prisoner swap includes an agreement to stash five Ukrainian commanders – including those defending the Azovstal Steelworks from a Russian attack on Mariupol – in a secret location in Istanbul.

Erdogan is also offering to mediate in the ominous military standoff surrounding the Russian-occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

And he still hopes to bring Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy together for ceasefire talks, which neither side particularly wants – but Turkish officials insist they are both necessary and realistic.

“Of all countries, Turkey is best placed to negotiate a deal between the two sides,” said London-based political risk adviser Anthony Skinner.

Erdogan has taken a deceptively simple approach to the war: arming Ukraine while using Moscow’s diplomatic isolation to his advantage by dramatically boosting trade with Russia.

Turkish combat drones have achieved legendary status in Ukraine for helping destroy the main Russian armored columns attempting to take Kyiv in the early weeks of the war.

And Russian trade and tourists have helped keep Turkey’s faltering economy from fully collapsing ahead of June’s presidential and parliamentary elections.

“Putin and Erdogan have negotiated with each other for a long time and overall have been able to resolve their differences on a number of issues,” Skinner said.

“It’s no different in Ukraine. Kyiv has been frustrated by the Turkish government’s failure to turn the tide on Moscow, but Ukraine is also benefiting immensely from Turkey’s continued support in the conflict.”

Turkey analyst Soner Cagaptay describes Erdogan’s actions as “pro-Ukrainian neutrality”.

“Erdogan has tried to strike a balance between taking a pro-Ukrainian stance and avoiding an openly anti-Russian stance,” Cagaptay wrote in a report for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

But there are signs that Erdogan’s policies have their limits.

He ended a meeting with Putin in August by unveiling a sweeping economic cooperation deal that switched much of Turkey’s trade with Russia to rubles.

The United States fears the deal will help Russia evade sanctions that the West hopes will eventually force Putin to end the war.

The US Treasury Department told Turkish banks and companies with close ties to Russia that they would face “secondary sanctions”.

The warning triggered a sharp sell-off in Turkey’s stock market last week.

Two of the five Turkish banks that process ruble transactions through Russia’s Mir payments system suspended such operations this week.

But Skinner said Erdogan still needed Russian trade.

“Erdogan will not sever trade ties with Russia,” he said. “He has a lot of cards to play.”