Matteo Salvini was once the figurehead of Italy’s far-right, but Giorgia Meloni’s popularity has made him a young – and potentially disruptive – partner in their electoral coalition.

The latest opinion polls from last week showed Meloni’s post-fascist brethren of Italy ahead of Sunday’s election by more than 24 percent, about double that of Salvini’s anti-immigration league.

Such an election-day result would allow her to claim the post of prime minister and decide the direction of her coalition, which includes ex-Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s more moderate right-wing Forza Italia.

It would be a disappointing turnout for Salvini, who was propelled to power after 17 percent of the vote in the 2018 general election and secured an impressive 34 percent of the vote for the European Parliament the following year.

A key question will be whether the league leaders can accept this diminished position or pose problems on issues – notably the Ukraine war – on which he disagrees with Meloni.

From his outspoken criticism of the European Union, Muslims and Roma, his overt Catholicism — brandishing a rosary on the campaign trail — to his shirtless parties by the sea, Salvini, 49, has cultivated an image as a man of the world.

He successfully led his once-secessionist party – formerly known as the Lega Nord – into becoming a national force, fueled by anger at Brussels and the tens of thousands of migrants who wash up on Italy’s shores each year.

But in recent years he has been eclipsed by Meloni, who shares his Eurosceptic Italians First platform but – despite her party’s neo-fascist roots – stylizes herself as a straight-forward but non-threatening “Christian mother”.

“Salvini made some big mistakes that damaged his image,” Lorenzo De Sio, a professor of political science at Rome’s Luiss University, told AFP.

Topping the list was the Lega leader’s “arrogance” as he attempted to overthrow his coalition government in 2019, hoping to force snap elections after his big win in European polls, only to find himself in opposition.

A key factor in Meloni’s rise was also her decision to stay out of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s grand coalition formed in February 2021 – the only party not to join her, giving her an outsider status that has attracted many disgruntled voters.

“Meloni was free to coordinate with the government when she wanted, for example on Ukraine, but at the same time to attack the government whenever she wanted to preserve her identity,” De Sio said.

Meloni’s party is Eurosceptic, although no longer in favor of leaving the EU’s single currency, but has strongly backed the bloc’s sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

In contrast, Salvini – a longtime supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin – has slammed the sanctions, saying they have hurt Europe more than Russia, not least because they have pushed up energy prices.

The league leader has called for more help for households and businesses to cushion the impact of rising electricity and gas bills, even if it means adding to Italy’s already huge debt.

Meloni disagrees and has given assurances that she will pursue responsible financial policies.

How they will manage those differences — along with those they have with Berlusconi, a more pro-European, centrist-right force who sits at around eight percent in polls — will likely depend on the final balance of power.

“Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi will be difficult coalition partners, desperate after a (probable) election-day crackdown to regain visibility by emphasizing political differences,” predicted Wolfango Piccoli of consultancy Teneo.

However, De Sio notes that while Salvini had something to gain by toppling the government in 2019, that wasn’t the case now.

And he noted that the Italian right has in the past proved adept at overcoming differences to remain in power.

“There prevails a pragmatic approach in which everyone prefers to keep their position in government, with all the advantages that come with it.”