Kenya’s William Ruto will take charge of East Africa’s economic powerhouse on Tuesday after the country’s Supreme Court upheld his narrow victory over veteran politician Raila Odinga in the August 9 election.
Odinga accepted the verdict but categorically said he disagreed, pointing to political divisions the country was ill-equipped to deal with as it faced a cost-of-living crisis and a brutal drought.
Here’s a look at what lies ahead as the new government takes shape:
– Can Ruto close the political divide? –
Kenya’s traditional ethnic voting blocs may have succumbed to class dynamics in this year’s polls, but as in previous elections, the result reflected a nation sharply divided down the middle.
An effective political strategist, Ruto portrayed the election as a battle between ordinary “hustlers” and “dynasties” – a reference to Odinga and outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, whose families have dominated politics since independence from Britain in 1963.
The 55-year-old vice-president came to victory by less than two percentage points and has struck a conciliatory tone since the results were announced, pledging that his government will serve all Kenyans, regardless of their political or ethnic affiliation.
According to Eurasia Group’s political risk advisory, “Ruto has worked to co-opt independent lawmakers and weak links in Azimio (Odinga’s coalition) to create an operational majority sufficient to pass laws and budgets” in parliament.
But Ruto’s relationship with Odinga and Kenyatta, former rivals who forged an unlikely alliance ahead of the election, remains tenuous. Until the eve of his inauguration, the outgoing president demonstratively failed to publicly congratulate his long-standing deputy on his election victory.
– How will the economy fare? –
Kenya is the most dynamic economy in East Africa, but many suffer from great hardship. Prices for basic necessities are skyrocketing in the wake of Covid and the war in Ukraine, and unemployment is a major problem, especially among young people.
Inflation rose to a 65-month high of 8 in August amid a weakening currency, rising fuel costs and a poorly implemented subsidy to halve the price of cornmeal used to prepare ugali, a dense porridge that is Kenya’s staple food .5 percent.
Ruto – who has benefited from growing frustration among Kenya’s poor – has vowed to tackle the cost-of-living crisis and the country’s $70 billion debt mountain.
He said he would set up a 50 billion shillings ($415 million) “Hustlers Fund” to lend to small businesses to spur growth and a fertilizer subsidy to revitalize agriculture – the backbone of the economy, that contributes more than 20 percent to GDP.
Florentina Kimoi, who hails from Ruto’s Rift Valley bastion of Eldoret, told AFP she hopes the new president will pay attention to “long-suffering” farmers like her.
“This year, many farmers have not grown cash crops such as corn, cassava (tapioca) and wheat because fertilizer prices have been too high,” said 81-year-old Kimoi.
“There used to be a lot of groceries, but things have changed. Nowadays, people need money to buy groceries and make a living.”
– What about anti-corruption? –
Ruto has promised to crack down on bribery – a sensitive issue in a country where scores of leaders have been accused of embezzling public funds – but the promise rings hollow to many Kenyans.
Ruto himself boasts a dismal reputation with years of bribery claims against him, and his scandal-ridden running mate Rigathi Gachagua was ordered to forfeit nearly $1.7 million in a court ruling following a corruption probe.
In an editorial last week, The Standard newspaper urged Ruto to select “decent men and women” for his administration.
Transparency International ranked Kenya 128 out of 180 in its 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index and said the fight against bribery had “stagnated”.
– How will Ruto treat Kenya’s neighbors? –
Ruto’s predecessor Kenyatta spent much of his second term playing peacemaker in East Africa, defusing tensions with Somalia, intervening in the DRC crisis and conducting talks between Sudan and Ethiopia.
Kenya’s allies are concerned about the future of a country that has emerged as a trusted ally and democratic anchor in a troubled region.
Analysts say the most pressing regional issue will be fighting in Ethiopia between government forces and rebels, which resumed last month and shattered a March truce.
Kenyatta had been touted as a possible mediator, offering Nairobi as the venue for peace talks, which both warring factions have now agreed should be led by the African Union.
