At a market in Sao Paulo, Celia Silva counts her money and hopes that Brazil will soon be “back on track” and she will no longer struggle to make ends meet.

The 61-year-old marketing analyst is not alone: ??a majority of Brazilians will put their wallets first when they vote in next month’s presidential election.

According to a Datafolha poll, the economy will be the most important issue for 53 percent of Brazilians when voting among candidates including far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and left-wing ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Latin America’s largest economy has recently shown signs of recovery after being hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.

It posted growth of 1.1 percent in the first quarter and 1.2 percent in the second, after growing 4.6 percent in 2021 compared to 2020, when the economy contracted 3.9 percent.

Those numbers, coupled with unemployment falling to 9.1 percent and inflation falling 0.68 percent in July, are campaign gold for Bolsonaro, who insists they prove Brazil is “better than many other countries”.

As economic metrics have improved, so has Bolsonaro’s standing in pre-election opinion polls.

But Datafolha figures released on Thursday show that Lula still commands more favor with 45 percent of voting intentions compared to 32 percent for Bolsonaro.

In July the difference was 18 points.

“The worst is over: the economy is improving and employment is recovering faster than expected,” said Igor Barenboim, chief economist at the consulting firm Reach Capital.

In the three months to July, unemployment hit a nearly seven-year low at 9.1 percent, compared with 13.7 percent for the same period in 2021.

But the effects are not always visible in Brazilian households.

“The Brazilian’s average real wage (2,693 reais, about $540 a month) is at one of its worst levels in a decade,” said Andre Perfeito of consulting firm Necton.

Despite a slowdown in July, annual inflation was 10.07 percent and has been in double digits since September last year.

The drop in July, Perfeito said, was largely due to cuts in fuel and electricity prices backed by Bolsonaro’s re-election government.

But food inflation continued its inexorable rise, hitting 14.72 percent in the 12 months ended July, worsening the scourge of hunger.

“There have never been so many starving people in Brazil,” says Paulo Feldmann, economics professor at the University of Sao Paulo.

“Brazil is now above the world average…Sixty percent of the population is now food insecure,” he added.

Feldmann said that while Bolsonaro publicly denied a hunger crisis, Lula could benefit from public anger over the issue.

According to official figures, when Lula was president from 2003 to 2010, around 30 million Brazilians were lifted out of poverty.

But the left is fighting against the government apparatus.

For the August-December period of this year, the government increased grants from 400 reais (about US$80) to 600 reais (US$120) a month to more than 20 million poor families under an aid program launched during the Lula presidency.

It has also increased gasoline subsidies and expanded truck driver perks.

Amid these announcements, perceptions of the economy improved, with 58 percent of Brazilians polled expecting their finances to improve in the coming months, according to Datafolha.

The market forecast for 2022 economic growth in Brazil has risen to 2.1 percent from 0.28 percent in January, according to the latest central bank survey.

This was in large part due to higher global commodity prices, of which Brazil is a major exporter.

But analysts warn of a fiscal mismatch caused by increased public spending.

A big question is whether fiscal debt, at 77.6 percent of GDP, “will develop explosively,” said Barenboim.

In the Sao Paulo market, shoppers are clear about their choice.

Edelzuita Ferreira, a 71-year-old pensioner, falls in Lula camp.

“If Lula wins, it will be easy, we can eat meat again. With Bolsonaro, we’re eating chicken feet,” she told AFP.

But Adriana Do Prado, 38, will opt for Bolsonaro.

“We stand today only thanks to the things he (Bolsonaro) did during the pandemic,” she said, underscoring the president’s refusal to close public facilities like the restaurant she runs as a preventive measure against Covid.

“Without him I would have had to close,” said Do Prado.