Kenya’s Supreme Court on Friday concluded hearings of three days of oral hearings in the case calling into question the validity of the Aug. 9 presidential election won by Deputy President William Ruto.
His 77-year-old opponent, Raila Odinga, who has lost his fifth trick in the presidency, insists the election results were rigged and claims to have “enough evidence” to prove his case.
With the seven-member judges slated to announce their decision on Monday — the constitutional deadline — here are some key questions about the case and its potential impact on the country.
– How did we get here? –
The Independent Election and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) declared 55-year-old Ruto president-elect on August 15 after a nerve-wracking wait for the results.
Odinga lost by a razor-thin margin of around 230,000 votes, despite the support of his old adversary and outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta and the weight of the ruling party machine behind him.
The former Prime Minister lamented the result, which also caused an uproar within the IEBC.
No presidential election result has gone unchallenged in Kenya since 2002, and Odinga himself has been down this path before, petitioning the court in 2013 and 2017.
In August 2017, the Supreme Court annulled the election after Odinga rejected Kenyatta’s election victory.
The IEBC has been under intense pressure to vote transparently after facing harsh criticism for its handling of the 2017 election.
– What are the complaints? –
Seven petitioners – whose cases have been combined into one – have alleged that there were massive irregularities that threatened the integrity of the vote.
Odinga’s 72-page petition claims hackers broke into the IEBC servers and “converted, manipulated and unlawfully” dropped forms used to tabulate polling station results.
He alleges that the IEBC published conflicting turnout figures and failed to count the results of at least 27 of the 290 constituencies, arguing that Ruto therefore failed to meet the constitutional threshold of 50 percent plus 1 of the valid votes cast.
The court, led by Chief Justice Martha Koome, said it had identified nine issues to consider before reaching a verdict.
The judges will try to find out if the IEBC website has been hacked and if the transmission of the results forms has been jammed.
They will also examine the IEBC’s servers to determine whether voting technology – a sensitive issue that led to the cancellation of the August 2017 vote – meets “standards for integrity, auditability, security and transparency”.
IEBC Chair Wafula Chebukati has denied the allegations, insisting he had fulfilled his duties under the country’s law despite facing “intimidation and harassment”.
– What now? –
There are three possible outcomes.
If the court finds significant irregularities that could have seriously affected the results announced by the IEBC, it can annul the election and order a new election within 60 days.
Alternatively, she can criticize the electoral process but conclude that the irregularities do not justify annulment.
If it nonetheless finds that the President-elect has not received 50 percent plus 1 of the valid votes, it will order a run-off election to be held within 30 days, a first for Kenya.
Eventually it can confirm Ruto’s victory and allow him to be sworn in on September 13th.
The decision of the court is made by majority vote.
The Supreme Court is the highest in the country and was created under the 2010 Kenyan Constitution “as the ultimate arbiter and interpreter of the Constitution”.
Its decisions are final and binding.
– What is at stake for Kenya? –
The aftermath of the election and the court decision are being watched with suspense as a test of the democratic maturity of the East African powerhouse.
While Kenya is seen as a pillar of stability in a volatile region, there are fears a protracted dispute could spark violence in a country with a history of post-election unrest.
Kenya’s worst electoral violence came after the 2007 election, when more than 1,100 people died in politically motivated bloodshed between rival tribes.
An extended campaign period will also exacerbate already difficult economic conditions as business is likely to slow amid political uncertainty.
The country struggles with soaring prices, a crippling drought that is starving millions, endemic corruption and disenchantment with the political elite.
