In this new phase of coexistence with the virus, the U.S. is seeing for the first time what it is like to experience a COVID-19 outbreak, with lists of newly infected people dotted.

Cabinet members, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the Broadway actor and the governors of New Jersey and Connecticut have all tested positive. The outbreaks at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins are bringing mask requirements back to those campuses as officials seek to isolate space.

Experts say the outbreak in the Northeast may — or may not — be a harbinger of what’s to come. Case numbers are no longer reliable as official testing and reporting have been scaled back and more Americans are testing at home.

Nationally, mask wearing is at its lowest level since April 2020, said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics science at the University of Washington in Seattle. According to the latest estimates from his modeling team, only seven of every 100 infections are recorded in official statistics.

Mokdad expects the high level of immunity the U.S. has built from previous infections and vaccinations will protect the country from a massive surge.

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“We’re going to have some infections here and there, but it’s not going to shut the country down,” Mokdad said. “Life has to go on. We have to get vaccinated and boosted. We need to protect the vulnerable, but we have to get used to it. it.”

Large indoor gatherings with the option to wear masks have led to infections, and a high-profile gathering in Washington, D.C., is now being viewed as a possible superspreader event. Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation in Washington, said clusters of infections outside of those regularly tested may go undetected.

“It’s harder now than ever to know what’s going on. The future is a little murky because we don’t have that much information at hand,” Michaud said. “If you’re not an actor or a politician in a Broadway play, you might pass the test crack.”

Michaud said the public health response will vary from community to community, depending on what’s happening locally.

“We’re fighting smaller fires, not raging across the country, that can be destructive,” Michaud said. “Everyone can choose their own adventure when it comes to pandemic response and personal behavior.”

In Washington, D.C., the outbreak was particularly high-profile — hitting multiple cabinet secretaries and members of Congress, as well as Mayor Muriel Bowser and the president of Georgetown University.

At least a dozen infections have been traced back to the Grill Club dinner, an annual fixture of the social calendar in Washington, D.C., held on Saturday for the first time in three years. Dinner is an example of a return to near-total normality across the country, leading to a surge in positive tests but not necessarily a corresponding surge in serious illness or hospitalizations.

Like much of the rest of the U.S., Washington, D.C. has significantly eased its stance on COVID in recent weeks. Bowser’s rules allowing vaccinations and indoor mask-wearing have expired, and the city’s health department stopped reporting daily virus counts in early March. Attendees of the Grill Club dinner, which Bowser did not attend, must provide proof of vaccinations or fail to comply with masks or social distancing.

Other staples of DC’s social calendar are back to normal as well. The city’s annual Cherry Blossom Festival has been going on for weeks — with dozens of related events, including a parade scheduled for Saturday.

In the general return to pre-pandemic behavior, there are some cautionary regressive steps. Georgetown University announced that it will reintroduce indoor mask rules amid rising infections, including by University President John DeJoa.

When announcing the new restrictions, Georgetown’s chief public health officer, Ranit Mishori, described the spike in infections as “significant” — especially among undergraduates. “Thankfully, because the vast majority of our community is up to date on vaccinations, we have seen no cases involving serious illness,” Mishori wrote.

In comments to reporters this week, D.C. Surgeon General Dr. LaQuandra Nesbitt noted that the current low rate of hospitalizations is evidence that vaccination has successfully limited the severity of the disease.

Virus indicators in Washington have climbed over the past month, according to the city’s health department. The weekly rate of cases per 100,000 residents climbed from 51 in early March to 110 in late March. But that’s still well below the weekly rate of 865 cases per 100,000 residents reported during the surge in omicron variants in the second week of January.

Nesbitt said there are no immediate plans to rework any dead virus protocols, but that is always an option for the future.

“We need to remember that living with the virus doesn’t mean forgetting the virus. It’s still there, it’s still making people sick and some people dying,” Michaud said. “If we’re not prepared, we’re going to be in a bad situation again very quickly.”