Jerry Lynn is here. The article lists five political and economic reasons why African nations are “neutral” over Russia’s war with Ukraine. More than half of African countries abstained, voted against or did not vote at all on a March UN General Assembly resolution demanding an immediate halt to Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.

By Olayinka Ajala, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett University.Originally Posted in conversation

In early March, the United Nations General Assembly vote The resolution calls on Russia to immediately cease military operations in Ukraine.

Of the 193 member states, 141 vote 5 voted against, 35 abstained and 12 did not vote in favour. Of the 54 African member states, Eritrea voted against the resolution, 16 African countries, including South Africa, abstained and nine others did not vote at all.

About half (26) of Africa’s 54 member states have chosen some form of neutrality.

So why didn’t African countries vote overwhelmingly for the resolution?

I believe that the decision by several African countries to remain neutral and avoid condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine was driven by issues directly related to the conflict as well as broader security, economic and political considerations.

There are five key reasons: These include doubts about the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO) and its motives; the growing reliance of some countries on Moscow for military support over the past decade; the growing reliance on wheat and fertilizer imports; It’s the return of the Cold War.

African countries’ decision-making is based on a strategic calculation of how the conflict will affect them, not on the humanitarian catastrophe caused by the conflict. This is in stark contrast to the European Union, which is able to agree and take a coherent position on conflict issues.

driving arguments

First, some African countries, including South Africa, see NATO as an aggressor for eastward expansion. In the eyes of these countries, this poses a threat to Russia.President of South Africa recently accused Ukrainian War Group Statement:

The war could have been avoided if NATO had listened to the warnings from its leaders and officials for years that its eastward expansion would lead to greater, not less, instability in the region.

This is not the first time African countries have been skeptical of NATO’s activities. In 2012, the former president of Namibia (another country that abstained) argued that NATO’s overthrow Muammar Gaddafi in Libya should be condemned and rejected by all right-thinking Africans.

Invasion of Libya and subsequent killing of Gaddafi led to unstable in North Africa and the Sahel. The result is that NATO has become quite unpopular in several African countries.

Second, in the past decade, several African countries such as Libya, Ethiopia, Mali, and Nigeria have developed majorMilitary alliance with Russia. Some African countries rely on Russia to fight insurgents.This includes hiring private military contractors from Russia such as Wagner Group Guidance on the import of weapons.

Lacking emphasis on upholding human rights, many African countries turned to military alliances with Russia.For example, in 2014, the United States reject Nigeria has turned to other countries, including Russia and Pakistan, for arms supplies as a result of serious human rights abuses documented in the fight against Boko Haram.

Russia and Russia sign military cooperation agreement in 2021 Nigeria and Ethiopiathe two most populous countries in Africa.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that Russia 18% sold Part of the total arms it produced to Africa between 2016 and 2020. Some of these military alliances have existed and are deeply entrenched since Soviet times.

Third, some African countries depend on Russia for wheat and fertilizers. This deepens economic ties.Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development show that African countries are importing wheat from Russia and Ukraine worth about $5.1 billion Between 2018 and 2020. A quarter of African countries depend on these two countries for a third of their wheat consumption.

Russia occupies 16% of global wheat productionand 13% of fertilizer production. African countries, already affected by COVID-19, are skeptical of cutting off any trade links.

Furthermore, many African countries have distanced themselves from their traditional Western allies in Europe and the United States due to the lack of Western support during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fourth, some African countries see conflict as a proxy warBetween the United States and Russia, recall the Cold War, so do not want to be involved in the conflict.

The Cold War brought untold difficulties to several African countries, as most African countries were gaining independence and needed to align themselves with a certain bloc. multiple civil wars come behind. So it seems right that countries remain neutral on this point.

In addition, China, a key ally of several African countries, has also dragged the line. As a result, some of its allies in Africa have chosen the same path.

Finally, some African countries increasingly believe that traditional Western allies only care about their own economies and people, and will only help if it is in their interests or part of a liberal agenda.

For example, since the impact of sanctions on Russia began to push up commodity prices, the United States has Turn to Venezuelaand Britain has changed to Saudi Arabia to increase oil production and ease the burden on its own citizens.

There’s no mention of how African countries are affected, or how to help the continent’s struggling economies. It’s reminiscent of the listless support from the West during the pandemic. It further restores the need to remain neutral – or in some cases not mandated.