Some of the world’s most respected oil traders are predicting that crude prices could climb above $200 a barrel this year due to rising oil prices. International boycott of Russia and lack of alternative sources of supply.

Pierre Andurand, one of the industry’s best-known hedge fund managers, said Russian oil enters Europe Will disappear after Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine, leading to a lasting reshaping of global energy markets.

“Wake up, wake up. We won’t be back to normal business in a few months,” he told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne. “I think we will forever lose Russian supplies on the European side.” Crude oil could even hit $250 a barrel this year, double current levels, he said.

Other oil market veterans who spoke at the conference agreed that Russian crude and Diesel and other refined products Even if a ceasefire is reached with Ukraine, there will be no return to European markets anytime soon.

Analysts estimate that as much as 3 million barrels a day of Russian oil could be lost from the market.

Doug King, head of the RCMA Commercial Commodities Fund, predicts oil prices will surge to $200 to $250 a barrel this year. “This is not temporary. It will be a crude supply shock,” he said.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, touched $122 a barrel on Wednesday ahead of a meeting of European Union and NATO leaders in Brussels on Thursday that could lead to new sanctions on Russia. Immediately after the invasion of Ukraine, the price rose to $139, and even if it fell back from there, the price was still 90% higher than this point last year.

“I don’t think it’s a temporary issue given the current situation,” said Alok Sinha, global head of oil and gas at Standard Chartered. “You have to deal with this as a long-term issue now, which means you need to look for alternative supply growth. .”

The U.S. shale industry is unlikely to come to the rescue by raising production to drive prices down, said Daniel Howes, a senior crude trader at Socar, Azerbaijan’s trading arm in Houston.

[Even] If they want to speed things up, it’s a 12-month process,” he said, adding that some producers could take as long as 18 months to bring in new oil. “The cavalry didn’t have the incentives for them to grow like we had before. The time has come so soon.”

The U.S. shale industry was once known for its debt-fueled production binge, but executives have since pledged not to spend too much cash flow and burn cash on costly projects.

King said oil prices in the futures market would need to rise sharply for the U.S. shale industry to ramp up production and deliver the cash returns investors were expecting. The U.S. benchmark WTI contract for December 2024 delivery traded below $80 a barrel on Wednesday.

Ben Luckock, co-head of trading at Trafigura, forecast Brent crude prices to peak at $150 a barrel this summer and warned that developing economies with less ability to lower fuel taxes would be hardest hit.

“While America, Western Europe and the richer countries of the world will be able to afford some of those tax breaks, print some money . . . those poorer countries won’t have the same toolbox,” he said. “These are going to be the first to suffer, and these are some unintended consequences of the policies that may come out.”