Author: Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Patient reader, I had to focus on beating Zeints, Walensky and Fauci, so I started late. This is the skeleton version. I will break my rules for updates and add more material in an hour or so. ——Lambert

Today’s Bird Song

I had a great time with you Migratory birds Because their songs are diverse.

#Coronavirus disease

I have started adding “not updated” before charts that have not been updated at the time of publication (mainly CDC). ——Lambert

Vaccination by region:

The south and northeast plummeted. It’s time to report (If Bubba we mean the South, then Bubba does a great job on vax, despite the commotion in the press.

61.4% of Americans have been fully (dually) vaccinated (CDC data, such as the data as of December 19th. A solemn return of 0.1% per day. We have broken through an important 61% psychological barrier! Mediocre by world standardsAs of this Monday, it is slightly lower than Hungary and slightly higher than Turkey in the “Financial Times” rankings).

Number of cases By U.S. region:

The fiddling and toying ends abruptly. In addition, as happened in 2020, if there is no other reason, I expect Omicron to have a second higher peak.

At least, the official statement is “Covid is behind us”, or the pandemic will be “End of January“(Gottlieb), or “I know some people don’t seem to want to give up this wonderful pandemic, but do you know? it’s over” (Bill Maher) Obviously there is a problem. (This graph is a 7-day average, so changes in direction will only be shown when the train is actually rolling.)

Not updated. I speculate that one of the sources of the idea that Covid is about to disappear is the CDC’s modeling center (its prediction seems to be used to justify the school’s reopening). This is the current version of the CDC Modeling Center chart, It aggregates the results of the eight models in the four scenarios, the last run (“round 9”) occurred on August 30, 2021, and the current case data (black Dotted line) ), including the average value predicted by the aggregation model (black line). I usefully emphasized the case data discussed above. not up-to-date:

The case data (black dashed line) is already within the tolerance of the model; it does not meet the model’s average value (black line), but it remains within the aggregate prediction (gray area).

I wrote: “It’s too early to say’Damn it, CDC, your model is broken’; but it’s too early to consider their possibilities. The case data still seems to be trying to break through the gray area. We will You see.” The case data has now broken through the gray area (see “Oopsie!”). Since these models are aggregations of conventional wisdom, it is unfair to accurately call them propaganda. despite this. Conventional wisdom seems a bit shaken, and anyone who relies on them to predict that we will “return to normal” early next year should re-examine their assumptions. This is-I assume-before Omicron!

MWRA (Boston area) wastewater testing:

I wrote: “We will see if it will become choppy again.” This upward light point is the first sign of fluctuation.

Massachusetts Department of Water Resources The (MWRA) service area includes 43 cities in and around Boston, including not only multiple school systems, but also several large universities. Since Boston attaches great importance to education, I think this may be a good leading indicator of Covid’s widespread dissemination in schools.

Not updated since CDC: “Community Profile Report“(PDF), “Rapid Rising” County:

Maine has improved. The northern Midwest has improved. Acela corridor is rough. More red spots, especially in Texas. Strange emergencies are like flying coal in a forest fire. They land, catch, but-a hope-splash. The red spot in central New York near the border of Pennsylvania, I think it is Ithaca (ie Cornell).

last version:

Hospitalization not renewed (CDC Community Profile):

I usefully highlight the state where the “trend” arrow points to yellow, and the orange state that points vertically. (Note that the trend, whether it is rising or falling, is marked by the arrow at the top. The admissions are shown in the chart, at the bottom. So there may be an upward trend, but the baseline is very low.)

mortality rate(Our data world):

All: 827,323 824,520. At this rate, I don’t think we will break the million mark before the new year. I drew an anti-victorian “Fauci line” to prove that the “new normal” of death was quite high, even before Omicron appeared.

not up-to-date. Too many deaths (Total, not only from Covid).

It’s hard to believe that we don’t have too many deaths now, but if so, we will be lucky. (The CDC explained that there is a data lag).

New coronary pneumonia cases Source of historical variants, Plus a supplement from the think tank:

South Africa looks better (I emphasized them), but I think this is a report artifact. Someone told me that Gauteng will be emptied during the festival; some go to the beach, some go to the countryside. So it is really too early to declare victory. Look at the UK, too.This is Logarithmic scale. Sorry for the confusion on the left. No matter how I fix it, it will not disappear.

[To come.]

Plant contact information: Readers, please feel free to contact me via lambert [UNDERSCORE] Bondage [DOT] current [AT] Yahoo [DOT] com to (a) know how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal, and (b) know how to send me plant images. Vegetables are no problem! Fungi and corals are regarded as honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, put it in parentheses at the beginning of the message: (so). Otherwise, I will use your initials for anonymization. See the previous water cooler (with plants) here. Today’s factory (AG):

AG wrote: “Last Thursday night, we ushered in our first freezing of the year at an altitude of 2,700 feet in the Sierra foothills of California. So, before the coffee started, I was still in a daze. I went out to see what I could see. , I hope to see some frost patterns.

The fallen native black oak leaves (and acorns) look very interesting, just like the sun peeping from a mountain, softly illuminating them. Especially the ice crystals on the edge of each leaf. I have about five minutes before this very delicate cream has completely melted. I believe any physicist will tell you that the edges or corners of any object will experience the greatest energy transfer, so the crystals at the edges of these leaves will get colder (if there is enough water, they will probably get bigger) from the leaves and air— -Think about the dew point-to support their growth) and also melt first when the sun arrives-relative to the crystals on the surface of the leaf.

The green shoots are the first rain-stimulated (unfortunately, non-native, meaning European annual and least popular invaders) a few weeks ago. The first shoots of grass are four inches or longer. . ”

Gorgeous!

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