Vanguard’s 2022 outlook-the big picture


I have been discussing why I prefer to think about the analyst Probability term Rather than making bold predictions; my opinion is Forecasting is marketing, Useless to investors. This is the basis for my suggestion that you should ignore the MSM expert section.

But not everyone thinks about the future so roughly: As an example of probabilistic thinking, consider the annual preview of Dr. Joseph Davis. And Vanguard’s strategy team. They created a baseline case and assigned it a 60% probability of occurrence. Then they conduct a downside risk assessment with a probability of 30%. The estimated probability of remaining upside risks is only 10%.

This is a smarter method than we usually see. I disagree with everything in their evaluation, but I do like the way they play war games. (I know Joe Davis and think that he is a very thoughtful and objective economist, which does no harm).Instead of giving you a bullet point for dissection, I just want to send you to them Outlook for 2022, You can judge for yourself.

source:
Pioneer’s 2022 Economic and Market Outlook: Achieve a Better Balance
Dr. Joseph Davis Vanguard Investment Strategy Group
Pioneer Research, December 2021

Before:
This is the most predict Time of year (December 6, 2021)

Stop listening to experts (December 8, 2021)

Forecasting is marketing (January 24, 2015)

Forecast and forecast discussion

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