Author: Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Patient reader, i am finishing Attack on Amazon, In their death trap in a warehouse in Edwardsville, Illinois. So embarrassingly, this is an open thread. Talk about it yourself! ——Lambert
Today’s Bird Song
Another migratory bird (Accompanied).
Regarding the word “moderate”. For me, “moderate” means “the status quo”, that is, “we are enduring the current situation, and the future will not get worse.” Well, the current situation, whether it is cases, deaths or hospitalizations-is not at all mild. In civilized countries, 812,205 people died– In the civil war, we lost 750,000 people, which is as much -Will be regarded as a disaster. However we continue to move forward. It’s kind of weird. I don’t understand the public psychology at all.
Lambert is here: from Yves Friday’s cross post, It seems that the number of vaccinations in CDC has been closed, whether accidentally or deliberately, we still don’t know. However, given that “everything is like CalPERS”, people will definitely consider the latter argument. The question is to what extent it rots.If in other respects such a clumsy CDC could play games, it would be great all All its data (especially because the data collection and processing is so fragmented, but also because the Johns Hopkins University should As a check). I also suddenly thought that “Vax vax vax” gave CDC a strong motivation to massage this specific data set, and the rationality of doing so; The public health agency has been lying, As far as we know. In any case, all the data is already known to be bad, because this is the United States. However, it is useful to cross-check the official narrative because no one can see cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, even if they are real, and assume that the pandemic is over. The same goes for “Hot Vax Summer”. So, for now, I will continue, but be sure to add a truckload of salt to the vaccination data. Of course, I can always manage waste water collection; now there is a reasonable amount.
A roller coaster. More data questions? (I didn’t say, because it’s too obvious. If Bubba is the guide party, then Bubba is doing a good job on vax, even though there is a lot of commotion in the media.
60.9% of people in the United States have been fully (dually) vaccinated (CDC data, such as data as of December 13th. Becker’s is pretty good for trade journals. So we will observe their views on the vax data that CDC may be massaged.) Significant growth returns of 0.1% per day. We have broken through the important 60% psychological barrier! Mediocre by world standardsAs of this Monday, it is only lower than Estonia and slightly higher than Peru in the Financial Times rankings). I bet that the solemn rise = word of mouth from actual cases. Or maybe numbers are being managed, such as revenue. However, as readers have pointed out, people who are vaccinated every day have less and less protection from severe illness and hospitalization, especially the earliest. So we are trying to transcend the delta… With Omicron’s rapid rise outside!
Number of cases By U.S. region:
I am dissatisfied with the period of fiddling and juggling that appeared before the previous peak (which has not appeared so far). Things rise, reach their peaks, or fall. Now we are fiddling and juggling again. I have helpfully emphasized these two periods. In addition, as happened in 2020, if there is no other reason, I expect Omicron to have a second higher peak.This Midwest The numbers have dropped, so here is the graph:
At least, the official statement is “Covid is behind us”, or the pandemic will be “End of January“(Gottlieb), or “I know some people don’t seem to want to give up this wonderful pandemic, but do you know? it’s over” (Bill Maher) Obviously there is a problem. (This graph is a 7-day average, so changes in direction will only be shown when the train is actually rolling.)
I speculate that one of the sources of the idea that Covid is about to disappear is the CDC Modeling Center (its prediction seems to be used to justify the reopening of schools). This is the current version of the CDC Modeling Center chart, It aggregates the results of the eight models in the four scenarios, the last run (“round 9”) occurred on August 30, 2021, and the current case data (black Dotted line) ), including the average value predicted by the aggregation model (black line). I usefully emphasized the case data discussed above. not up-to-date:
The case data (black dashed line) is already within the tolerance of the model; it does not meet the model’s average value (black line), but it remains within the aggregate prediction (gray area).
I wrote: “It’s too early to say’Damn it, CDC, your model is broken’; but it’s too early to consider their possibilities. The case data still seems to be trying to break through the gray area. We will See it.” The case data has now broken through the gray area (see “Oopsie!”). Since these models are aggregations of conventional wisdom, it is unfair to accurately call them propaganda. despite this. Conventional wisdom seems a bit shaken, and anyone who relies on them to predict that we will “return to normal” early next year should re-examine their assumptions. This is-I assume-before Omicron!
MWRA (Boston area) wastewater testing,not up-to-date:
The average dropped sharply, just like the last peak. We will see if it will become choppy again.
Massachusetts Department of Water Resources The (MWRA) service area includes 43 cities in and around Boston, including not only multiple school systems, but also several large universities. Since Boston attaches great importance to education, I think this may be a good leading indicator of Covid’s widespread dissemination in schools.
The West Coast is much better, Maine is much worse. More red spots, especially in Texas. Strange emergencies are like flying coal in a forest fire. They land, catch, but—a hope—splash.
Hospitalized (CDC Community Profile):
I usefully highlight the state where the “trend” arrow points to yellow, and the orange state that points vertically. (Note that the trend, whether it is rising or falling, is marked by the arrow at the top. The admissions are shown in the chart, at the bottom. So there may be an upward trend, but the baseline is very low.)
mortality rate(Our data world):
817,956. Moderate rise. At this rate, I don’t think we will break the million mark before the new year.
Too many deaths (Total, not only from Covid), not updated:
It’s hard to believe that we don’t have too many deaths now, but if so, we will be lucky. (The CDC explained that there is a data lag).
(Supplement: I know Bad data. This is America. There is no doubt that this mortality rate is a public health disaster. Public health agencies have a responsibility to take care of public health, not the health of certain preferred political factions. It also added: I like mortality because it gives me a rough indication of my risk, my goodness, if I end up being admitted to the hospital. )
New coronary pneumonia cases Source of historical variants, Plus a supplement from the think tank:
The rise of South Africa appears to be linear, even though it is Logarithmic scale. Let us hope that Chile’s sudden jump is just a matter of data. Sorry for the confusion on the left. No matter how I fix it, it will not disappear.
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AA wrote: “Our daughter Kay picks seedlings in the local botanical garden every spring. Never know what the Japanese maple will look like. This is a beauty! We plant it next to one of our beehives-a top bar style -Used for summer shade… Amazing in early December.” Gorgeous maple trees, lovely sky… But what a fun beehive! I have never seen such a person.
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