U.S. employment data will show whether the labor market recovery is back on track


As economists look for signs of recovery in the labor market, the US economy is expected to record strong employment growth again in November.

According to consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, employers in the world’s largest economy are expected to add 546,000 jobs this month, slightly higher than 531,000 jobs Created in October. Since the beginning of this year, the average monthly income has been 582,000.

Economists expect the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage point to 4.5%. Less than six months ago, it hovered at a level of close to 6%.

However, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the data at 8:30 am Eastern Time on Friday, and it is expected that the number of people employed or looking for work will hardly improve.

The so-called labor force participation rate has been stagnant since June 2020, and is expected to be 61.7% in November, a slight improvement from 61.6% in October, but about 1.5 percentage points lower than the pre-pandemic threshold.

Childcare issues and Covid-related concerns are one of the most frequently cited reasons preventing people from returning to work-this dynamic may be affected by recent new developments. Omi Kron Coronavirus variants.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell mentioned this risk in his two days of congressional testimony this week and pointed out that another wave of Covid-19 may hinder the progress of the labor market and deteriorate. supply chain Interrupted.

He said that this may mean slower employment growth, slower economic activity, and greater uncertainty about inflation, which is running at the fastest rate in 30 years.

With a severe labor shortage, employers have had to raise wages to attract workers, and it is expected that the average hourly income in November will increase again.

It is expected that there will be an increase of 0.4% from the previous month, which will bring the annual growth rate of wages to 5%.

The latest employment report was released a few days later by Powell say clearly The central bank is taking a more active stance to combat inflation, and he acknowledged that inflation has expanded throughout the economy in recent months and has triggered the specter of a more persistent problem.

Powell hinted this week that he might support Accelerating The central bank withdrew from its huge stimulus program-a process that began only a few weeks ago, and its pace will completely end bond purchases in June.

The quicker exit that many Fed officials now publicly support may mean that interest rates will be raised earlier than expected. This possibility shook financial markets and prompted economists to increase their bets on raising interest rates next year.

Some Wall Street analysts now expect to raise interest rates three times next year, and the first adjustment will take place as early as May.



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