Published 9:20 AM on December 3, 2021 go through EPI employees

Below, EPI economists provide their preliminary insights on the November employment report released this morning.

From Elise Gould, Senior Economist at EPI (@eliselgould):

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Although the number of employment in November was lower than expected, so far, employment growth in 2021 has exceeded 6.1 million. As long as November is a short-lived, an average of 555,000 people per month in 2021 still means that we are expected to fully recover in 2021. The end of 2022.https://t.co/FqVVDDfXEN

-Elise Gould (@eliselgould) December 3, 2021

Overall, the number of employees in November increased by 210,00 (seasonally adjusted), but when we look at the non-seasonally adjusted series, we see an increase of 778,000. This means that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will make a seasonal downward adjustment in November to smooth the series, which may be related to holiday hiring.

-Elise Gould (@eliselgould) December 3, 2021

We can see here that retail trade is still 176,000 down from pre-pandemic levels. Since February 2020, the leisure and hospitality industries have topped the industry gap, with a gap of 1.3 million jobs. Employment in the public sector ranks second, mainly due to the loss of education jobs. pic.twitter.com/cHrE9Ok4yR

-Elise Gould (@eliselgould) December 3, 2021

From EPI Chairman Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz):

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When two surveys show different things, the rule of thumb is to emphasize the institutional survey because it is much larger. We should do this here. However, the extremely powerful household survey shows that we don’t need to be excited about 210k. 2/

-Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) December 3, 2021

The wage growth of production/non-regulated workers in most industries slowed sharply in November. The broader dynamic is that the slowdown in employment growth during the delta period (August/September/October/November) was accompanied by a slowdown in wage growth in most industries. 4/ pic.twitter.com/lU8EUWBdHk

-Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) December 3, 2021

Due to COVID, 3.9 million workers have lost the labor force (for example, if LFPR has not declined since February 2020, the labor force will increase by 3.9 million). Counting those who have been misclassified and others, the unemployment rate will be 6.6%. 8/

-Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) December 3, 2021