As the energy crunch stabilizes, Chinese factory activity picks up

As the energy crunch stabilizes, Chinese factory activity picks up

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China’s manufacturing activity increased slightly in November due to the easing of power supply shortages, and commodity prices helped boost output after two consecutive months of contraction.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in November was 50.1, slightly higher than the threshold for distinguishing expansion from contraction.

In recent months, the world’s second largest economy has been hit Real estate industry downturn with energy shortage As Beijing eased its crackdown on developers and intervened to control fuel prices, this situation showed signs of abating in November.

The thermal coal futures trading price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on Tuesday was RMB 1,040 (US$163), which was lower than the high of RMB 2,301 last month.this Stable price Helped to alleviate some of the power shortages that caused the manufacturing PMI to reach its level Lowest level October since February last year.

Chinese regulators also Relieve stress The impact on real estate developers in the past two months by loosening credit controls and allowing more bond issuance. The recent relaxation has caused the construction industry’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index to rise by 3.9%.

But analysts warned that China still faces major economic challenges.

Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Investment Bank, said that China’s economy will “continue to face the adverse effects of “more significant contraction in real estate sales”. Zero Covid Policy And the pressure to fulfill climate commitments in the coming year is increasing.

Song Shanshan, a China economist at HSBC, said that more targeted support from Beijing is still needed, pointing out shrinking employment and poor performance of small business activities.

Official data put more emphasis on large state-owned enterprises. The average activity of large and medium-sized manufacturers increased, but the activity of small manufacturers continued to shrink.

The November PMI benefited from a 7.4% increase in manufacturing production. The other major sub-indexes—new orders, raw material stores, hired workers, and supplier delivery times—all remained below 50 points.

It is common for the monthly indicators of industry activity to increase in November, and the Chinese Golden Week holiday in early October reduced the number of working days in the month.

The official data was released the day before Caixin announced the private manufacturing purchasing managers index, which tends to place more emphasis on small businesses.

In addition, official data shows that South Korea’s industrial output in October fell at the fastest rate in nearly a year and a half, because the global supply chain disruption hit factories in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

Finance Minister Hong Nanji also warned that the new Omicron coronavirus variant may exacerbate supply chain problems.

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