Bank of England chief economist supports rate hike
The chief economist of the Bank of England said on Friday that the conditions for him to vote for a rate hike now exist, but he declined to say whether his initial move was in December or early next year.
Huw Pill said that after the government’s vacation plan for company employees is over, the unemployment rate is unlikely to see any surge, and the economic recovery is mature. If the Bank of England fails to raise interest rates, inflation may continue to remain high.
The Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee surprised financial markets this month Vote to maintain interest rates Although the inflation rate has soared, it is still at a historic low of 0.1%. The next MPC meeting will be held in December and February.
In a speech to the CBI employers’ organization, Peel stated that the Bank of England needs to “flexibly respond to unforeseen events” and pointed to the new coronavirus variant B.1.1.529 As a potential wrench at work, but said he intends to vote for interest rate hikes as soon as possible.
“Although supply disruptions put pressure on economic activity, they can also cause inflationary pressures,” he said.
“The labor market is tight. Given our stance on data and analysis, I think the possible direction of monetary policy is very clear.”
Peel’s speech at the CBI indicated that he and the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey now intend to vote for a rate hike, although they hope to maintain flexibility in the exact timing after the central bank’s recent communication difficulties.
“We need to move forward and then reassess where we are and whether this allows or requires another step forward,” Peel said, referring to the rise in interest rates in the questions raised after the speech.
Bailey said at an event at Cambridge University on Thursday: “Our current labor market is very tight, there is no doubt.”
Peel said in his speech that if the economy continues to recover strongly, the Bank of England needs to prepare for an increase in interest rates from 0.1% in September.
“In my opinion, we are now ready for policy action,” he added.
Peel repeated last week’s comments on Friday, namely Burden of proof Having changed, he now needs to find reasons for not supporting interest rate hikes, rather than supporting hawks to vote.
This is not the first time Peel has stated that he is Want to vote Higher interest rates will soon be available.
Before the Monetary Policy Committee meeting this month, he outlined his dissatisfaction with the 5% inflation rate. Financial Times Interview, But did not vote for tightening monetary policy, but chose to wait.
Although Pill stated that he was well aware that he might vote on policy in the near future, he added that it would be wrong to comment on how high interest rates might reach in the next few months, and pointed out the way the MPC feels important to it.
“MPC needs to gradually evaluate the impact of each policy decision, and then assess whether and when further action is needed,” Pill said.
“If the data develops unfavorably and inflation is expected to fall below the target within the policy-related range, we can keep it as it is or reverse it. If the data strengthen and inflation is expected to continue to be higher than the target, we can continue to raise interest rates.”