Exit: the total number of non-agricultural employment

Exit: professional and business services

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“The number of American workers resigning in September is the highest level on record.” ——New York Times

“The Great Resignation 2021: People resign in droves”——NPR

Catchy phrases in the title are great clickbait, but they often lack nuance or context. for example,”Great resignation. “

We have been discussing wages and employment here. The labor market is undergoing tremendous changes, but it is easy for people to ignore what is happening below the surface. Let us see if we can clarify this point.

Start with the two charts above: the first shows the total Turnover rate of all non-agricultural wage workers Since the end of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009, the obvious trend is that the turnover rate of all workers has steadily increased and accelerated this year. I want to separate these data a bit and analyze who left and why.

Consider the second chart Exit: professional and business services. These are all kinds of white-collar workers who did a good job during the pandemic. Although the overall trend has been on the rise since the end of the global financial crisis, for professional courses, the past few years have been mostly horizontal.This is very enlightening because it tells us that the great resignation is Mainly occurs in the lower half of the employment salary table, Entry-level positions or positions slightly higher than these positions.

We recently discussed their advantages Embedded technology:

“The environment allows professionals to easily access a full set of work tools to easily work at home. This includes creatives, financial professionals, law, accounting, media, etc. These groups have great flexibility in where and how they work.

Is it surprising that workers in the hotel, food service, healthcare, and retail industries have fled these fields into the white-collar workforce? This is not just money: it represents autonomy and a control measure that makes you feel less like a serf, more like a self-determining professional. “

If this trend continues, it will be a A major breakthrough with power dynamics In the 3 decades before the global financial crisis. This has a profound impact on the economy.

Companies whose business models rely on cheap labor are experiencing problems. If your company pays the minimum wage or just ended, it is expected that it will be difficult to find workers. To make matters worse, if your employees also participate in SNAP and/or assistance to families with dependent children, then expect high turnover, low morale, and fewer applicants to choose from.

Part of the reason for the current problem can be traced to the federal government’s failure to significantly increase the minimum wage. For decades, the minimum wage has not kept up with inflation, productivity or corporate profits; the active lobbying of minimum wage companies is the reason. As a result, these same companies now find themselves understaffed and are chasing wealthy and better-run companies like Amazon, BJ’s, and Starbucks to find workers.

Over time, we did not gradually increase the minimum wage nationwide. First, it was $10, then $12, and then moved towards $15. Over the years, we have seen increasing pressure. .. Then during the pandemic lockdown, we experienced 18 months of low-paid workers Reconsider their professionThe dam burst, and the result was a sudden surge in wages and a shortage of workers.

In other words, you can partly blame the current labor chaos on the companies that have suffered the most—they contributed to these situations. I expect that many companies with inefficiency, poor management, poor business models, and over-reliance on cheap labor will be liquidated. These companies will disappear, some will be blamed on the pandemic or cover-up orders or “awakening” or some other excuses, but the simple fact is that these companies are not stable or profitable. On the other hand, the survivor must be.

“The great resignation” is a backward phrase. The low-paid workforce has improved their skills, obtained certifications, obtained degrees, upgraded, found new areas of work, and launched new applications. Instead, we have millions of people starting small businesses, fighting for the middle class, entrepreneurship, and self-determination.I wrote some time ago The future of new businesses is disrupting old businesses; This is a better description of what is happening now: Upset.

Before:
Change the balance of power? (April 16, 2021)

Elvis (your waiter) left the building (July 9, 2021)

Find it difficult to hire?Try to increase your salary (May 6, 2021)

The future of new businesses is disrupting old businesses (February 7, 2015)

How McDonald’s and Walmart became welfare queens (November 13, 2013)

U.S. wages

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