Despite soaring inflation, British consumer confidence has improved

Despite soaring inflation, consumer confidence in the UK improved in November, easing some economists’ concerns about a recovery in spending in November Black Friday and Christmas Eve.

According to data from the research company GfK, the UK Consumer Confidence Index is a closely watched measure of how people view their personal finances and broader economic outlook. It rose 3 points to minus 14 in November.

The reading is the average net balance between optimistic and pessimistic people in the five aspects of the economy.

It is based on data collected between November 1st and 12th, which is stronger than the forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters to drop slightly to minus 18. It raises consumer expectations for the American retail discount tradition on Black Friday, November 26 this year, and Christmas.

Joe Staton, director of customer strategy at GfK, said that a 7-point increase in the sub-index, which tracks whether people think this is the right time for bulk purchases, is particularly promising. He pointed out that this may be a sign that “after the cancellation of family gatherings last year, shoppers are ready to rebound and will usher in Christmas splurge in the coming weeks.”

Although the inflation rate has risen sharply in the past few months, the situation has improved.

Official data released on Wednesday showed that soaring energy prices boosted consumption The inflation rate in October reached the highest level in a decade, Increase the cost of living of the family and hit their spending power. Rising prices also increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at its December meeting.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at consulting firm KPMG UK, said: “We do believe that with rising inflation, heavier tax burdens and rising interest rates, consumer spending may slow down in the next few months. This is one of the downside risks.”

However, people’s views on the overall economic situation have improved significantly, and people’s views on their personal financial situation in the coming year will also rise slightly.Reflect the active job market The vacancy rate hit a record high.

Other non-standard expenditure measures also show flexibility.

According to data from Fable Data, a company that tracks bank transactions, in the week ending November 14, UK bank transactions rose 12% from the same week in 2019, the highest level this year.

Avinash Srinivasan, an analyst at Fable Data, pointed out that clothing stores “increased spending before the holidays,” and spending in department stores, health and beauty stores improved. During the same period, the Bank of England’s credit and debit card purchase trackers increased by 4%.

According to data released by the office on Thursday, the number of diners seated in the second week of November was also much higher than the level of 2019, while the transaction volume of the sandwich chain Pret A Manger continued to increase-reflecting more people returning to the office Statistics for the country.

Consumer perceptions and the likelihood of consumption are important because household consumption has been the driving force behind the British economy’s rebound from the pandemic. In the third quarter, it contributed 1.2 percentage points to 1.3% economic growth.

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