“Resistance is in vain”-5 things to watch for Bitcoin this week

“Resistance is in vain”-5 things to watch for Bitcoin this week


Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Start a new week in more than one way, because BTC/USD hit the highest weekly closing price ever.

After a few days of painful slow progress, Bitcoin finally broke through a critical level.

Ready to go now”parabola“Some people believe that a week after altcoins hit record highs, the largest cryptocurrency has now regained the focus of traders.

Will “Moonvember” live up to its name? Cointelegraph studies the factors that may ultimately drive the market in the coming days.

As BTC exceeds 65,000 USD, the futures gap widens

It took a week of patience, but with the take-off of Bitcoin, the bulls finally paid off on Sunday and overnight, starting from April to set a new all-time high of $64,900.

As often happens during the bull market, the rate of increase is very fast, and only one hourly candle increases the spot price by $2,000.

The timing is impeccable, just before the weekly close, so the weekly chart hit a new high of $63,270.

It is foreseeable that with the return of higher short-term forecasts, the response will be overwhelmingly positive.

“Resistance is futile,” podcast host Scott Melk Summarize Next to it is a chart showing the Bitcoin trend breakout.

In addition to setting a record high every week, the broader crypto market has also seen another milestone-the total market value of all tokens exceeds $3 trillion for the first time.

As Cointelegraph Report, Remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Bitcoin, and there is unanimous consensus around the largest share of returns in this cycle.

“People who think it’s too late to buy BTC don’t realize how far Bitcoin can go in this cycle,” popular analyst Rekt Capital Add to.

Filbfilb, an analyst and co-founder of the trading platform Decentrader, also pointed out one of the few possible reasons for the correction of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures gap.

Given that the opening price of the market on Monday will be much higher than the closing price on Friday, the spot price may briefly fall back to “fill” the resulting gap-and Historical mode –stay.

He told subscribers of the Telegram channel: “It looks very bullish, it may go back to the cme gap, but overall it looks very hot.”

CME Bitcoin futures 4-hour candlestick chart. Source: TradingView

With “extremely greedy” waiting, funds continue to grow

In addition to the CME gap, another derivative clue may put cats among the pigeons in a short period of time.

data At the time of writing, it is shown that the funding rates of various exchanges are moving towards unsustainable areas.

Although not as high as when it reached $67,000 and above in October, as traders’ desire for the market becomes complacent, highly active funds often lead to price corrections.

However, for analyst Dylan LeClair, this is not a concern, because there is no obvious sign of an increase in leverage.

“BTC has risen by $2,000 in the past few hours, and there has been no significant increase in open futures contracts or long-term funds,” he said Tell Twitter fans.

“The current price movement is the result of weak spot sales, not the result of a sudden increase in leverage. No seller liquidity = upward gap.”

BTC financing rate chart. Source: Coinglass

At the same time, the overall market sentiment is moving in the direction of “extreme greed.” Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

However, at 75/100, the index indicates that there are at least 20 points to run before entering the classic top condition.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Miners still don’t sell – that’s why

As all-time highs seem to be approaching, Bitcoin miners continue to show firm determination and “hoard” instead of selling their BTC.

Data from on-chain analysis services CryptoQuant It shows that with a few exceptions, the outflow of miners’ wallets has remained stable in recent weeks and months.

Bitcoin miners flow out of the chart. Source: CryptoQuant

There may be a good reason-since the block subsidy was halved in May 2020, when the miners’ income in BTC fell by 50%, the dollar value of their income has soared.

“Despite the decrease in BTC-denominated revenue, since the 2020 halving, miners’ U.S. dollar revenue has increased by 550%, and is close to ATH of more than $62 million per day,” a colleague of analyst firm Glassnode Comment on Monday.

The attached chart shows the extent to which miners have used their positions to profit, and how it pays hodl in the current four-year halving cycle.

Annotated chart of Bitcoin miner income and BTC/USD.Source: Glassnode/Twitter

As Cointelegraph Pointed out earlier, The behavior of miners in the fourth quarter is very different from the beginning of the year.

Although the trading price of BTC/USD was much lower than today, the outflow in the first quarter was much higher.

Hash rate shows “absolute elasticity”

Along with the bullish sentiment of the miners, the corresponding hash rate of the miners “can only increase.”

As a measure of commitment to maintaining the processing power of the blockchain, the Bitcoin network hash rate continues to recover by leaps and bounds from the turmoil caused by the Chinese ban in May.

In record time, this indicator almost offset the impact of the event, as miners moved to the United States and other places, and existing operations increased their capabilities.

Leclerc wrote on Twitter: “The recovery after China’s mining ban has shown everyone the absolute flexibility, robustness, and decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network.” Annotation.

The hash rate varies depending on the estimate used, as its exact level cannot be accurately calculated. At the time of writing, the 7-day average of the blockchain represents 161 exahashes (EH/s) per second, with a real-time maximum of 168 EH/s.

Chart of Bitcoin’s 7-day average hash rate.Source: Blockchain

In addition to the hash rate, the difficulty of the network will continue to increase, which has increased for eight consecutive times.

Five days later, at the current price, the difficulty will increase by approximately Increase by another 3% to 22.33 trillion -Approaching the record high before the collapse of China.

CPI data expiration raises inflation concerns

Inflation is still the name of the macro market game, and this is still a positive and negative factor for Bitcoin’s attractiveness as a hedging tool.

related: The 5 most noteworthy cryptocurrencies this week: BTC, DOT, LUNA, AVAX, EGLD

With the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this week, it is expected that the “disconnection” between forecast and reality will widen.

Federal Reserve, recently transmit signal An analyst said that this will reduce asset purchases and may even be forced to change direction due to the current environment Tell Bloomberg.

“We believe that these two CPI data have upside risks, so the Fed may actually accelerate the pace of asset purchases,” said Mahjabeen Zaman, a senior investment expert at Citigroup.

As Cointelegraph Mentioned earlier, CPI itself is not a good measure of inflation, because it excludes many assets with the largest increase in value and price.

This has led to calls for the use of Bitcoin to protect the purchasing power of individual savers and cash-rich companies, which is also a key factor in MicroStrategy’s conversion of most of its balance sheet to BTC.