Will US consumer price growth reach the highest level since 1990?

It is expected that consumer price growth in the United States will accelerate again in October, ending continuous moderate growth and heightening concerns that high inflation will last longer than expected.

Wall Street economists predicted before the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ announcement on Wednesday that consumer prices were expected to rise by 5.8% over the same period last year. This will be an improvement from the 5.4% recorded in September and the highest level since 1990.

The consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg shows that prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month. Between August and September, they rose 0.4%.

Once the volatile commodities such as food and energy are excluded, the price increase in October is expected to be more moderate, but it will remain high. The core CPI is expected to rise 4.3% annually, up from 4% in September. It is expected to increase by 0.4% from the previous month, which is twice that of the previous month.

Economists and policymakers will pay close attention to Wednesday’s data for further signs that inflationary pressures are spreading beyond the industries most sensitive to pandemic-related disruptions, such as used cars. Rents and other housing-related expenses are expected to rise again.

The latest inflation data was released after the Fed’s recent policy meeting. The Central Bank of the United States not only announced the reduction of its asset purchase plan, but also more directly recognized the risk that inflation will continue to rise, and emphasized the severe supply chain disruption that has exacerbated today’s price pressures.

Chairman Jay Powell also emphasized that if inflation becomes a more obvious problem, the Fed is ready to use its tools, although he reiterated that he expects that as the bottleneck is resolved, it will eventually be alleviated. Colby Smith

How much has the UK’s economic growth slowed in the third quarter?

Economists said before the release of the new data on Thursday that the British economic rebound is expected to slow sharply in the third quarter. In its latest monetary policy report, the Bank of England predicted that output growth would slow to 1.5% in the three months to September, which was lower than the 5.5% in the previous quarter and lower than previous expectations.

This will make GDP 1.8% lower than the pre-pandemic level, which is greater than the 0.5% gap in the Eurozone.

It is now expected that the UK economy will only return to its pre-coronavirus levels in the first quarter of next year, three months later than the Bank of England’s August forecast, as growth is expected to slow to 1% in the last three months of 2021. United Kingdom The central bank will also lower its forecast for next year by one percentage point to 5%.

The Bank of England said: “The near-term weakness mainly reflects the impact of domestic and global supply constraints, although British consumer demand is also expected to weaken.”

Ellie Henderson, an economist at the wealth management group Investec, predicts that the growth rate in the third quarter will be slightly lower than 1.4% because the economy is expected to grow only 0.3% month-on-month in September. This is because she expects that industrial production will be hindered by supply chain disruptions, and as production costs rise, construction activities will level off.

Henderson said the slowdown in overall growth data is “not surprising” because the so-called reopening has already been picked. Valentina Rome

Will supply shortages and e-commerce transformation squeeze UK retail revenue?

Next Sales in the third quarter were better than expected This week, the apparel and household goods group did not raise its full-year outlook. It warned that at a time when supply chain challenges and inflation hindered consumer spending, pent-up demand is now waning. A series of earnings reports to be released in the coming days will show how much these factors have affected the transactions of other British retailers.

These corporate updates will also detail the extent to which shopping has entered the digital realm, after coronavirus restrictions have accelerated the documented shift from physical locations. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, the proportion of online retail sales in the United Kingdom rose to 28.1% in September, far higher than the 19.7% recorded in February 2020.

Marks and Spencer reported half a year of data on November 10, and measures have been taken in recent months Accelerate transformation A digital-first company invested more than 20 million pounds in a technology fund operated by investment company True. The company said in late August that its overall performance has been “encouraging” since the uncertainty in early 2021.

At the same time, the high-street chain Primark lacks an e-commerce business, but the owner Associated British Foods, which reported full-year figures on November 9th, Transaction statement In the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ending September 18, operating margins have remained strong. Analysts expect ABF’s operating profit to be 959 million pounds, which is lower than the FactSet consensus estimate of 1.02 billion pounds.

From high street to high end, luxury goods group Burberry reported on Thursday, November 11-this is the first report since it was announced that Jonathan Akeroyd will join Versace as CEO. “and also [current boss Marco] Goberti’s departure and concerns about a slowdown in China’s lucrative market for luxury brands have also weighed on the stock price,” said Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown. Burberry investors “will be keen to watch for any new signs of consumer confidence.”

So far this year, Marks and Spencer’s stock price has risen by more than two-fifths. AB Foods’ stock price fell 16%. Burberry’s stock price rose 12%. Harriet Krafelt


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