Disappointing global economic data exacerbates growth anxiety

U.S. Economic Update

The acceleration of data released by the United States and internationally is lower than expected, highlighting investors’ growing concern that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant will slow the pace of global economic recovery.

Several closely watched U.S. economic indicators announced in recent weeks are far below Wall Street expectations, indicating that strong economic growth from the depths of the Covid crisis may be losing momentum.

An economic surprise index compiled by Citigroup shows that U.S. data has been lower than economists’ forecasts for most of the past month. In recent days, these reports have begun to be inaccurate. The greatest degree since the blow was caused.

Two weeks ago, US consumer confidence was significantly lower than expected, and then the report was weaker than expected Retail sales And the pace of new house construction a few days later. Commercial activity measured by regional Federal Reserve Bank branches was also lower than expected.

Similar stories are also unfolding outside the United States, and Citi’s measurement of the performance of G10 countries’ economic reports has also fallen into a negative value compared to expectations.Considering that the bank’s monitoring of China is even more bleak Retail sales Last week’s industrial production data was lower than expected.

The deceleration of these economic indicators comes at a time when the Fed hints that it may begin to relax or “shrink” its bond purchase program during the crisis later this year.

“The tone of investor attention has shifted from the momentum of reopening, strong fiscal and monetary support, and profitability to dwindling conversations, political uncertainty… China’s economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions,” Nationwide Investment Management analysis Mark Hackett (Mark Hackett) said.

Recent data and continued reports about supply chain bottlenecks have dampened investor sentiment, which has been accompanied by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in the United States and other parts of the world.

Economists have called back their U.S. growth forecast Slightly, it is expected to increase by 6.2% this year. According to Bloomberg News, this is lower than the 6.6% growth predicted at the end of July.

Citi strategist Tobias Levkovich (Tobias Levkovich) said: “The Delta variant may be the cause of the recent supply chain disruption, but it is troublesome and may turn into a revenue problem.”

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