U.S. Inflation Update

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The rapid rise in U.S. consumer prices Increase The situation in recent months is expected to approach a 13-year high in July, which will be the first sign of a possible slowdown since the beginning of this year.

According to the consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July is expected to rise by 5.3% over the same period last year. This is roughly in line with the 5.4% increase reported in June, which is the largest increase since 2008.

The month-on-month growth rate will slow down sharply, and prices are expected to rise by 0.5%, compared with the previous increase of 0.9%.

The data is scheduled to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 am EST on Wednesday.

Even if volatile commodities such as food and energy are excluded, price pressures are expected to remain high. Compared with the same period last year, the “core” indicator is expected to rise by 4.3% in July, slightly lower than the 4.5% increase in June.

Whether the recent rise in consumer prices will evolve into longer-lasting inflation is the focus of debate between policymakers and economists.

The Federal Reserve generally believes that as the pandemic-related shortages and supply chain constraints ease, rising costs will weaken over time.But Fed Chairman Jay Powell (Jay Powell) recently admit Inflation risks are “upward” in the short term.

Recent data shows that inflationary pressures have begun to extend beyond the sectors most affected by the economic reopening-such as air tickets and other travel-related expenses-causing people to think that inflation will not be just a “temporary” phenomenon. Worry.Economists are watching the recent rise Housing cost, Especially wage growth.

More and more U.S. central bank governors have begun to argue that the Fed should consider reducing its unprecedented monetary policy stimulus measures as soon as possible, including the monthly purchase of US$120 billion in institutional mortgage-backed securities and Treasury assets.

The Fed has stated that it will maintain this rate until it sees “significant progress” in its goal of 2% average inflation and maximum employment.

Rafael Bostic, chairman of the Atlanta Fed and a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee, said this week that the Fed has achieved its first goal. Supported by K. Rosengren and James Brad. St. Louis and others.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently Handle a case The “reduction” was announced in September, and Vice Chairman Richard Clarida (Richard Clarida) supported action later this year.

Powell did not propose a specific timetable, but confirmed that a debate has taken place in progress On how the central bank will cancel its easing policy.