U.S. Employment Update

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The U.S. labor market is expected to build on the massive employment growth last month, because some Shortage of workers The factors hindering economic recovery are beginning to ease.

According to the consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg, it is expected that employers across the country will increase 858,000 jobs in July, which is higher than 850,000 jobs. create In June. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.7%, after rising to 5.9% last month.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the data at 8:30 am Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, which will be closely watched by policymakers. intense argument Regarding how much support the world’s largest economy needs to get rid of the shock of Covid-19.

Economic growth has Rebound For the first time, U.S. output has returned to its pre-pandemic level. Consumer prices have also soared across the country, but the labor market has been slow to heal. Policymakers have cited childcare issues, concerns about Covid-19 infection, and increased unemployment benefits as factors preventing Americans from filling a record number of job vacancies.

Although employers have worked together to attract workers, the labor force participation rate that tracks the number of Americans employed or looking for work has hardly changed. Some companies have increased wages, while others have provided incentives.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that the labor force participation rate rose slightly from 61.6% last month to 61.7% in July. Average hourly wages will increase by 0.3% from June and 3.9% year-on-year.

Another strong employment report may force U.S. Federal Reserve More serious consideration of reducing the $120 billion monthly bond purchase program-it said it will maintain this pace until it achieves “substantial further progress” in achieving the dual goals of maximum employment and an average of 2% core inflation.

In a letter on Thursday, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia urged Fed Chairman Jay Powell to “re-evaluate our country’s position immediately. [on] Monetary policy has begun to scale back the emergency stimulus response”, warning of overheating and high inflation without the need for adjustment.

But many Fed officials said that more progress is still needed in the labor market.

Christopher Waller Say This week, the number of jobs in July and August increased by 800,000 to 1 million, which may lay the foundation for the September announcement, including Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley Others, including (Mary Daly), have also recently proposed an end-if the economy improves as expected.

Powell has not provided a specific timetable, but he said Confidence At a press conference after the latest monetary policy meeting last week.

“We are clearly on the road to a very strong labor market, with high labor market participation, low unemployment and high employment rates. [and] Salaries are rising in every aspect,” he said.