Experts say that Neil Ferguson is “overconfident” in claiming that Covid will support us by September
A leading statistician stated that NEIL Ferguson has been “overconfidently” claiming that Covid will support us by September.
Nate Silver said that there are so many variables in the pandemic that no one can be sure of its outcome.
Mr. Silver correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 US presidential election. After an expert (known as Professor Lockdown) said that the worst period of the pandemic should be left behind before September or October, he summoned Professor Ferguson .
He also noted that epidemiologists warned earlier this month that it was “almost inevitable” and we will soon see 100,000 cases per day.
Mr. Silver wrote on Twitter: “Since Neil Ferguson, the most famous epidemiologist in the UK, said that 100,000 cases per day are “almost inevitable”, the number of new coronary pneumonia cases has dropped to daily 33,000 cases (average 7 days).
“I don’t care if the prediction is wrong, I believe it is difficult to predict. This is because he has always been overconfident.
“Now he says he is’sure’ that the pandemic will end in October. Well, it may. But there are downside risks: new variants, reduced immunity, etc.”
Earlier today, Neil Ferguson told Radio 4’s Today program that we were “not completely out of trouble” but “the equation has fundamentally changed”.
He said: “The role of vaccines in reducing the risk of hospitalization and death is huge.
“And I think I’m pretty sure that by late September/October, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic.
“We will have Coronavirus With us, we will still have people dying from Covid, but we have forgotten most of the epidemic. “
It is like this:
But the political science writer Professor Philip Tetlock agreed with Mr. Silver’s view and added: “When smart predictors have been overconfident, they begin to suspect that they are not playing a pure accuracy game (such as propaganda or policy advocacy). game).”
Professor Ferguson believes The plateau of the British case Due to the end of the European Cup in 2020 and the warm weather leading to outdoor socializing and opening windows, it is currently experiencing its peak.
In his grim forecast of 100,000 cases per day, he said: “I think it’s too early to draw conclusions. The reduction we are currently seeing does happen before the unlocking happens. We will not see the effect in a few weeks. Unlocked.
“In other words, if the direction is right, I am happy to make a mistake, and if the number of cases remains low, that would be very good news.”
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Yesterday, 24,950 new cases were recorded, down from 29,173 on Sunday and 31,795 on Saturday.
There was a total drop of 46% last week.
Professor Lawrence Young, an expert in molecular oncology, University of Warwick Tell the Sun that the drop in numbers may be due to the drop in testing.
He said: “One thing that is worrying is that schoolchildren undergo a horizontal flow test twice a week and add it to the number.”
He warned: “In the next few months, we may reach 100,000 per day, which is still possible-we still have a highly spread mutation.
“The doubling time of the virus may be very fast. This is a seesaw effect that can balance different things. It all depends on the way people mix.”
Professor Young said that the next 10-14 days will be a “critical period”: “I hope it is an economic downturn, but we need to wait and see.”
A Downing Street spokesperson said: “Throughout the pandemic, we have been saying that the decline in cases is encouraging.”
But he added: “Given the move to step 4 last week, we should still expect the number of cases to increase.”
“The Prime Minister believes that we have not gotten out of the predicament.”
Health experts are optimistic that the third wave driven by the Delta variant may now have reached its peak.
According to the Politico report, it is understood that the ministers “try not to get too excited about the decline”-but now people “believe” that things are going in the right direction.