Experts warn that after a “temporary slowdown”, the number of new coronavirus cases will rise again “exponentially” within DAYS
An expert warned that the number of cases will increase “exponentially” within a few days, dashing hopes of shrinking the epidemic.
Yesterday’s government report 39,906 new Covid diagnoses, Which is nearly 18% lower than last Thursday’s figure, and is the first drop since May.
But Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia’s Norwich School of Medicine, said that such unusual statistics are likely to be “temporary.”
He said: “It is too early to see any impact of the relaxation on Monday the 19th. Part of the reason for the reduction in cases is that schools are now closed and many children are no longer being tested regularly.
“I want to warn that this may only be a temporary slowdown in the report, and then we start to see exponential growth resumed next weekend due to the end of restrictions last week.”
Professor Hunter stated that it is not until August 9th how the “Freedom Day” will be held in England, although Delta cases soar, Which promoted the infection rate.
There is always a lag between an action (such as the relaxation of the lockdown in England) and its impact on the number of cases.
For example, Professor Hunter said that about ten days after the first England game in the European Cup and the quarter-finals, the new cases accelerated significantly.
“If a disturbance like the euro only temporarily accelerates the increase in the number of cases while the game continues, this may herald the impact on July 19,” he said.
“This may indicate that we will only see a short-term boost before the end of next week, and a slowdown or even a decline in the following days. Time will tell.”
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Other experts admit that it is too early to say that the data shows a positive trend.
Professor John Edmonds, a member of the Emergency Science Advisory Group (Sage) who advises ministers, told PA News Agency: “The school closure took place in Scotland on June 23 and has recently occurred in other parts of the country., Will start to work.
“In addition, the large number of adults and children who have self-isolated in the past few weeks should also help slow the growth of the epidemic.
“On the other hand, it must be remembered that the impact of the relaxation of restrictions earlier this week is not yet apparent in the epidemiological data.
“So it is difficult to say exactly what will happen. However, it seems very likely that if we do not take any further action, we will be in a long-term high-incidence period of high morbidity, and all interruptions and risks of hospitalization and death will follow. Here.”
Dr. Simon Clarke, associate professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said: “Based on today’s data, it may be too early to think that we see the infection leveling off.
“The number of infections in the past year is very similar to today, so there has been a sharp rise and fall, so it is wise to observe the trend instead of getting too excited about the daily numbers.
“We haven’t seen the impact on the numbers of the final restriction being lifted on July 19, nor how the school summer vacation will cut some calories from the number of infected people.”
Dr. Clark said that even if the virus stops spreading during the summer vacation, it is “hopefully reversed in September.”
“Vaccination will have the greatest impact on reducing these numbers,” he said.
Previously, one of the most outstanding studies tracking the epidemic found that the epidemic has not stabilized as previously estimated.
Experts running the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app said last week that the third wave appears to have “peaked” with 33,000 new symptomatic cases every day.
But on Thursday it turned around and said that after changing its methods, the number of cases is still rising.
Tim Spector, a professor at King’s College London and chief scientist of ZOE research, said that the new crown virus “will definitely not disappear anytime soon.”
“Unfortunately, the hope that the current wave of infections has peaked has been dashed because the latest data from ZOE shows that as the UK lifts most of the restrictions, new Covid cases continue to rise,” he said.
“In the rush to return to’normal life’, we must not forget the lessons of the pandemic, because this will only extend Covid’s control over our lives.”
Public Health UK data It shows that, except for the five places in the past week, every local authority in England has an outbreak.
By region, the number of cases surged the most in the southwest, with Yorkshire and the Humber having the highest number of cases.