The Bank for International Settlements warns that the worst period for developing economies has yet to come
Developing countries have not yet felt the full impact of the coronavirus crisis on the economy, but they will not be able to rely on the support of the world’s major central banks when they reduce stimulus measures during the pandemic. Bank for International Settlements There are warnings.
Central Bank BIS general manager Agustín Carstens (Agustín Carstens) said that the borrowing capacity of developing economies and the ability to use fiscal and monetary policies are about to run out.
“They have to start facing how to drive growth in music [with] All these things are not good for them. .. Fiscal space is reduced, they have no money space, they have higher corporate debt and higher sovereign debt,” and deep-rooted low growth capabilities, he told the Financial Times.
“This is the first time in the world that the growth of developed economies is higher than global growth, and global growth is also higher than that of emerging markets,” he said. “The growth of emerging market economies has been slowing down, and we have not seen it pick up.”
In the decade before the pandemic, the growth rate of many emerging economies slowed down, barely surpassing the growth rate of advanced economies. While China, India, and other developing regions in Asia continue to grow rapidly, much of the emerging world has stagnated.
Carstens said that the high levels of public and private debt in emerging economies will put pressure on investment. If financial conditions tighten, emerging economies will be particularly affected. This is becoming more and more possible as major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, hope to reduce stimulus measures during the pandemic.
Therefore, although the number of global bankruptcies has fallen to the lowest level of this century thanks to the support of policymakers, Carstens said, “If you face less [policy] Accommodation and less direct support”.
Therefore, although developing economies have so far successfully weathered the pandemic without financial or economic crises, there are still great risks, he said: “Some of us think this may not be the final situation. We What I have seen so far is unbelievably good.”
According to two recent reports, developing countries that rely on foreign investors to boost their economies will face particularly difficult times.
Earlier this month, the Center for Economic Policy and Research found that the average rate of return on foreign direct investment has declined over the past decade, and the decline in developing countries has been greater than in advanced economies.
The report’s lead author, Simon Evenett, said: “There seems to be an assumption that there is a wave of funds waiting to be distributed, but if there is, the pool of funds is drying up.”
A report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development last week found that the decline in greenfield foreign direct investment in developing countries last year was particularly severe, which created new facilities and job opportunities. The volume and value of greenfield investment in developing countries have fallen by more than 40%, while the decline in developed economies is less than 20%.
The lead author of the report James said that the rise of geopolitics and protectionism means that the role of emerging economies in global value chains is threatened. “development of [that] Because strategy will become more difficult,” he said.