As the pace of economic recovery accelerates, will the number of U.S. employment pick up?

As the pace of economic recovery accelerates, will the number of U.S. employment pick up?



As the pace of economic recovery accelerates, will the number of U.S. employment pick up?

After the last two months of employment in the United States were far below economists’ forecasts, as vaccination rates across the country increase and reopen, the pace of recruitment in June is expected to accelerate.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that Friday’s non-agricultural employment report will show that, driven by the leisure and hospitality industry, the U.S. economy has added 700,000 jobs this month-far higher than the 559,000 created in May. Jobs, much higher than the 278,000 in April. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to drop slightly from 5.8% to 5.7%.

The labor shortage has become worse due to fears of contracting the new crown virus in the workplace, childcare restrictions, and (according to some economists and politicians) extended federal unemployment benefits. As demand picks up from pandemic lows, employers are racing Recruitment.But the low transmission rate of Covid, the rise in vaccination rates and the reopening of major economic centers, such as new York California has laid the groundwork for a recruitment rebound.

“We are definitely on the road to recovery, [but] Oren Klachkin, chief economist at the Oxford Economics Institute, predicted that non-agricultural employment will return to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2022.

In the market Irritability Regarding inflation, Friday’s report is expected to also show higher wage pressures, with average hourly wages expected to increase 3.6% from a year ago.

Fed officials this month expect inflation to rise sharply this year. Lead forward Their prediction of the first interest rate hike in 2023 after the pandemic has disturbed the market.Since then, Fed Chairman Jay Powell and his inner circle seek Assure the market that they are cautious in withdrawing support. Mantabadka

How strong is the Japanese economic rebound?

The latest quarterly tankan survey is a closely watched indicator of Japan’s economic performance, and is expected to show a clear divergence between the manufacturing and service industries when it is announced on Thursday.

A kind Vaccination progress is slow with Soar Coronavirus cases have stagnated parts of the economy, and until recently, nine cities were under emergency restrictions. However, although the service industry continues to struggle, the manufacturing industry is expected to show clear signs of recovery.

“Key factors to be aware of [this] This week will be how much the manufacturing industry will gain,” said Stefan Angrick, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in Tokyo. “Due to the rebound in global activity, we expect the manufacturing industry to grow. “

According to the request of the Bank of Japan, nearly 10,000 companies participated in the Tankan survey, and the response rate exceeded 99%.

The survey index for large manufacturers is Minus 10 According to the forecast compiled by Bloomberg, by the last quarter of 2020, it is expected to increase from positive 5 in the first quarter of this year to 16 in the second quarter. It is expected that the economic recovery of Japan’s main export markets, the United States and China, will become the main driving force.

In contrast, the non-manufacturing index of service companies included in the survey is expected to rise slightly from negative 1 in the first quarter to positive 3 in the second quarter, indicating how much the retail and tourism industries have been hit by Covid-19 restrictions . Robin Harding

How big is the price pressure in Europe?

The new data released on Wednesday predicts that the rate of price increases in the euro zone will slow slightly, but economists believe that inflation will continue to rise for the rest of the year.

Eurostat’s preliminary Eurozone inflation data for June may show a slight calm, even if the group has lifted the lockdown and its vaccination plan continues to proceed quickly. A Bloomberg survey of business analysts predicts that the inflation rate will increase by 1.9% year-on-year.

But for the rest of the year, most economists expect price growth to show an upward trend. This view is supported by the IHS survey, which shows that the proportion of companies reporting price increases in June from the previous month has risen to a record high. The highest level started two years ago.

Eurozone inflation exceeded the ECB’s target for the first time in more than two years in May. jump To 2%, and IHS Markit’s business survey Released The suggested price pressure last week has also picked up this month.

Reinhard Cluse, an economist at UBS, said that inflation will peak at 2.6% in November after a slight decline in early summer, but he pointed out that the IHS survey shows that “this year’s The peak inflation may be higher than our forecast assumptions”.

The reasons for price increases are shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain, increased fuel and transportation costs, and pressure from rising wages.

Like its American counterparts, European Central Bank policymakers have stated that as the effects of pandemic restrictions spread across the economy, the inflation situation will be prediction As the rise in energy prices slows, the headline inflation rate in 2023 will drop to 1.4%.

ING Bank economist Carsten Brzeski pointed out that the US and Eurozone central banks “seem to be willing not only to tolerate temporarily higher overall inflation, but also to tolerate the beginning of a wage price spiral.” Valentina Rome


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