If the Phillies do not win this weekend, they may be in big trouble
The Phillies wasted an opportunity they might regret on Tuesday night.
The Phillies trailed the Nationals by one point in the ninth inning. They had two chances to win with a fully loaded base and draw closer to the Metropolis team, the top of the division.
But the Phillies fell down with sobs as usual, and now they find themselves in second place in three games, four games behind the New York team.
It’s still June, and any comprehensive statement about Phils’ status may be a bit premature, as the trade deadline is already six weeks away. However, if the Phillies cannot maintain the lead in the division, they may ultimately fail to prove that it is reasonable to compete before the deadline.
If they do not win this week, they may be too far behind to consider buying.
The Phillies may be four games behind the Mets in the four games that begin this weekend and doubles on Friday, which means that if they don’t win the series, they will widen the gap behind their Queens opponents.They won’t face the Mets again before the end of July, even though they will Face the Marlins, Warriors and Nationals.
After starting 7-2 in June, the optimism surrounding this team has given way to the mediocrity the city has become accustomed to, with Philadelphia leading 2-5 in the past seven games. For the first time this season, their ace Zack Wheeler performed poorly, losing three games in the shortest game of the year in their most recent defeat.
The Phillies have been treading water, and few people follow their way. Some simple bad luck—statistics show that luck will get better—may be at work here.
Wheeler has been a victim of bad luck all season. His 2.36 ERA is one of the best ERAs in a Grand Slam, but it was wasted in many cases because he ranked 117th among 132 starters and only 3.5 assists per game. It is difficult to win in this situation. However, Aaron Nola of the Phillies averaged 5.3 points per game (33rd best).
Take Bryce Harper as an example. The Phillies star outfielder has to fight not only with injuries but also with the lack of base runners. He didn’t hit a base in his nine home runs this year. They are all single shots. He has 51 clicks this year, and 57% of the clicks are empty. In contrast, Rhys Hoskins led the home run with 16 home runs. He himself has 10 solo shots, of which 6 were men on bases, and 43 RBIs out of 64 hits-by comparison, Harper has 19 RBIs out of 51 hits.
Or take Alec Bohm as an example. This season, he hits the ball at an average speed of 92.7 mph heavier than all but 11 players in the entire MLB. However, his hit rate is only 0.233.
The problem is that if their luck doesn’t improve quickly, they may be 5, 6 or 7 games behind the Mets in the NL East. If this happens, a very difficult loophole will be dug before the end of July, when Dave Dombrowski and the front desk will have to prove their rationality as buyers and try to promote the playoff seats.
The odds setters have a low chance of doing this for the Phillies. They have the third best chance to win NL East, According to FanDuel, is +900 through Pickswise. The Mets are leading with -330, while the Warriors are leading with +450.
It seems too early to say this, but this weekend’s series between the Mets and the Phillies is significant and may eventually become a turning point for the entire 2021 season.
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