Brexit polls show “limited enthusiasm” for the UK-EU trade deal

British voters have “limited enthusiasm” for the post-Brexit agreement negotiated by the Boris Johnson administration with the European Union last year, and only one-fifth of them think it is a “good” agreement. A survey found it.

However, before the fifth anniversary of the EU referendum in 2016 on Wednesday, opinion polls also found that years of split political debate had hardly changed their minds-four-fifths of voters said they would still vote in the same way.

Sir John Curtis, Professor of Political Science at the University of Strathclyde, who led the polling team’s research British ideas And the National Center for Social Research (NatCen) stated that these findings are “far from an endorsement of the Brexit trade agreement”.

“Five years have passed, and it is hard to say that the Brexit referendum was an absolute success,” Curtis wrote, noting that the leavers had limited enthusiasm for the Brexit deal. At the same time, he added that the result made a small number of voters who stayed in Europe satisfied with the Brexit project.

The overall response is tepid Trade agreement Lord David Frost’s negotiations last year found that even among Brexit voters, only one-third thought it was a “good” deal, although this figure reflects that some Brexit voters are more willing to leave on more difficult terms. The fact of the EU, there is no deal at all.

The survey was conducted a few weeks after the UK left the EU single market on January 1, and is the latest in a series of rolling polls conducted by What UK Think and NatCen since 2016.

The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) did not trigger Major interference It is expected that the British port will be in January this year, but it did lead to a sharp decline in British exports to the EU in certain sectors such as agricultural food. Exports fell by nearly 50% Compared with 2019 and 2020, the first quarter of this year.

Other broader impacts, especially those on professional services and travel, have been overshadowed by Covid-19 to some extent, and leisure and business travel to Europe has decreased significantly this year.

Although there are doubts about the post-Brexit agreement, public opinion polls continue to prove Johnson’s decision to fulfill his promise to “complete Brexit” in the 2019 general election. Dissatisfaction with the British government’s handling of Brexit has dropped from a peak of 88% in the fall of 2019 During the long stalemate in the parliament in 2000, it is about 50% today.

“When it seemed that Brexit might not happen, the confidence of Brexit voters in the British government was severely shaken, but it has now basically recovered,” Curtis wrote.

At the same time, the survey found that three-quarters of Brexit voters now expect a reduction in immigration or a better economy-two key indicators of Brexit-indicating that for many voters, “the details of Brexit are not Unimportant principle”.

As for whether the 2016 referendum will be re-launched today to see different results, the opinion poll found that it may not.

Although the vast majority of those who did not vote in 2016 stated that they will now vote for re-entry to the European Union, they are likely to be eliminated by the number of voters who stayed in Europe-although they still want the United Kingdom to remain a member of the EU. EU-due to further turbulence in rejoining, it will not vote now.

“We estimate that the referendum on’re-join’ and’exit’ is likely to produce a weak majority (52%) in favor of withdrawal,” Curtis said.

Looking to the future, Curtis said that if the UK-EU TCA will encounter difficulties in the future after the Covid-19 restrictions are lifted in the next few months, it is not clear whether public opinion will change.

Much depends on whether the opposition Labour Party is prepared to raise the Brexit issue in the future. The party has so far been reluctant to contest the Brexit issue because of concerns about alienating Brexit voters in the target electorate.

Curtis told the Financial Times: “The evidence of Brexit pudding will be in the diet, and the main course has been postponed by the pandemic.”

“To make a difference, the government’s record will have to be criticized, and it will depend on the extent to which the opposition is willing to resolve what they believe to be Brexit operational errors.”

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