Afghanistan is not called the cemetery of the empire for no reason. King Alexander, British Empire, The Soviet Union and the now powerful United States both felt humble when trying to conquer this fierce country. Now, as the world’s emerging superpower, China has not even really started its own new imperial plan, there is a risk of falling into the same trap.

As the longest war in the United States ends before the iconic September 11, 2021, Chinese leaders and foreign policy thinkers are struggling with contradictory impulses. On the one hand, Beijing has always believed that US actions in Afghanistan are part of a new “big game” aimed at encircling, containing, and possibly undermining China, which shares a small border with China.So the U.S. final Humiliating withdrawal From this perspective, it is welcome for the Taliban to re-establish control in the country.

On the other hand, an imminent power vacuum could cause chaos in a country that could destabilize the entire region. The renewed civil war may attract jihadist forces, which have turned their attention to what some Western governments call “genocide.” Chinese Muslim Uyghur population Just past the border. Beijing is particularly concerned about Uyghur fighters returning from Syria, where a small number of people are fighting alongside the Islamic State.

Earlier this month, the foreign ministers of China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan met to discuss security arrangements after the United States withdrew from Afghanistan. China has also wooed the Taliban and even refused to provide infrastructure and reconstruction projects to the organization.Beijing hopes to expand its grand One Belt One Road Infrastructure From its main branch in Pakistan to its construction projects in Afghanistan, it is optimistic that this will help provide stability to the war-torn country.

Witness and welcome the United States in its “Forever war“For the past 20 years, and the memory of the Soviet experience in Afghanistan in the 1980s, the last thing Chinese leaders want to do is to get into their own Afghan quagmire. Beijing believes that the US entanglement in Afghanistan and Iraq after the 9/11 terrorist attacks is mainly diplomatic. Policy interference provides a window of opportunity for a more confident China.

Now the White House has publicly stated that it is ending the war, partly to free up resources face the challenge This rising power. The expectation that Beijing will be drawn into the country probably played a role in President Biden’s decision to leave.

Beijing’s plan to extend the “Belt and Road” to Afghanistan is fraught with danger. In most other countries, these projects are implemented by Chinese workers with loans from China to build roads, railways, ports and bridges.But partly thanks to the treatment Xinjiang Uyghurs, Chinese contractors have become targets in some parts of Pakistan. Given that the danger in Afghanistan is much greater, and Xi Jinping will pay a political price if workers go home with their body bags, any “Belt and Road” project in the country will likely have to be accompanied by important security.

The advisors of the Chinese Communist Party have recommended that China send peacekeeping troops to the country under the auspices of the United Nations to protect the “security and interests” of the Chinese people and companies there. Such tasks are accustomed to gradually and deeply involved. President Xi should learn from history and avoid the fate of other future empires.