Europe waits for U.S. trade to exit the Trump era
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Hello, from Brussels, Joe Biden’s European Caravan arrived this week after the G7 summit in Cornwall.
What about G7?we have already Said before The UK has the potential to play a useful catalyst/broker type role in global governance, but Boris Johnson’s naive political scoring habits and the country’s despise The international agreement in the Brexit process may undermine it. We would claim to be some kind of genius fortune teller– Super forecaster, One might say-for Sorry event In Cornwall this weekend, except, well, it’s not hard to see it coming, is it? The EU-US summit on Tuesday will involve some more mature dialogues, but it will not necessarily produce immediate results. This is our main theme today.
Concession waters Look at the fate of the world’s largest manufacturer of rubber gloves, because after an investigation into alleged forced labor practices, it was hit by a ban from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency.
Washington laboriously review the situation
If you want to change the tone of symbols in transatlantic trade negotiations, you only need to look at the personalities involved. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai (Katherine Tai) is a calm and composed technocrat. She has arrived in Brussels for her first face-to-face meeting with Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, who is dedicated to He customized the adjective “calm”. We are still a long way from the combustible machismo of our predecessors Robert Lighthizer and Phil Hogan.
But the substantial change is smaller than the atmosphere.The Biden administration has retained more Trump policies than the EU wants, and it is doing a a lot of Think carefully about things before making changes.As far as Brussels is concerned, if U.S. trade policy now has a theme song, it will be Review the situation, The classic shaking hymn in musicals Oliver!
In theory, there is great potential for cooperation in supply chain and technology policy to reduce dependence on China. But in the United States and the European Union, this idea has just formed, and the policy cooperation mechanism is still being established.EU has suggested The transatlantic “Committee on Trade and Technology” serves as a forum for solving this and related issues. However, changes in bureaucratic procedures are not entirely the highest point of global governance. The establishment of the committee has caused some internal concerns in France and other member states, and the substantive negotiating power is handed over to the European Commission. More generally, EU leaders have made it clear that they will not adopt a confrontational attitude towards China as Biden hopes.
At the same time, domestic political demands are preventing the apparent repair of a series of genetic stimuli.
P. 232 National Security Tariff Restrictions on EU steel and aluminum exports still exist, as do the EU’s retaliatory “rebalancing” tariffs on U.S. imports from Europe.There are some Optimistic report Last week’s talk about tariffs will be lifted in December, but this seems to be based on an early draft of the communiqué reflecting the EU’s wishes, not a final agreement. In fact, committee officials suspect that Section 232, which is popular with the blue-collar voters Biden is keen to retain, is unlikely to be cancelled at least in the middle of 2022, or even after the 2024 presidential election. At present, the government, guess what, they are under review.
Can tariffs be transformed into some other form of trade restriction without involving the ridiculous labeling of the EU as a national security threat? Of course, other trading partners negotiate various forms of managed trade, including export quotas, to avoid Article 232. For example, some pragmatic and export-oriented member states (Germany) may adopt a similar approach, but other EU governments and the flame guardians of the international rules of the Commission’s Trade Bureau would consider this a shame.
If Article 232 is not passed before December, the EU will face an unpleasant choice. It can double its rebalancing tariffs on U.S. goods, which it postponed last month as a gesture of goodwill, which will hurt Biden politically and may allow Republicans to participate in Congress next year. Or it can keep them still and look weak.
Another question is-what is this word? Oh yes, Review ——It’s American Threatening tariffs Oppose digital service taxes in various EU (and non-EU) countries. The obvious solution is the major international agreement reached by the OECD on corporate tax.But a lot Capitol Hill I don’t like this idea.And as Endless trade disputes It has been shown in the past that Congress listens to instructions from foreign governments on taxation issues, just as God advises creation.
Finally, there is a problem with the World Trade Organization. To its credit, the Biden administration almost immediately lifted Lighthizer’s de facto obstruction to the appointment of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as WTO Director-General.But Brussels has shown stimulate When the United States supports the WTO’s patent exemption for the Covid-19 vaccine, it considers this to be grandstanding. As for freeing the WTO Appellate Body from the deep freeze imposed on it by the Trump administration, the European Union complained that the United States is still in this situation. You will never believe this. It is under review. Of course, it seems unlikely that there will be too many reports at the large WTO ministerial meetings in November and December.
There is nothing positive to report? Well, one thing, it’s not trivial. The exact time is not yet known, but we seem to be very close to reaching an agreement to resolve the dispute between Airbus and Boeing by defining and limiting acceptable state support. This will be a permanent relief for bourbon enthusiasts in the EU-obviously there are some, but the reasons are not clear-as well as American wine drinkers in trouble in the retaliatory tariff crossfire. If it really ends the intermittent litigation since 2004, it will be a pretty good victory.
This week’s summit may be too early for any other major breakthrough, and the United States can still claim that it needs more time to think. But in autumn, the lack of progress of various stimulants will become more obvious. If people don’t think you’re dragging them, you can’t review them forever.
Remember the top gloves? The world’s largest Malaysian rubber glove manufacturer has gained fame with the support of sales growth related to the pandemic.It was March hit The United States ordered the seizure of its products, accusing it of using forced labor.
Unsurprisingly, the manufacturer’s stock price fell at the time. However, as shown in the figure, Top Gloves can make up for some of the lost sales in North America by selling more products to Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. Claire Jones
Some important readings about weekend events in Cornwall. Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times Say This G7 It is worth more than cash when competing with China and Russia. G7 agree “Green Belts and Roads” Initiative Competition with China, although again little is known about how much money is involved.
Experts from German Marshall Fund Think Tank Watching what Joe Biden’s trip to Europe May reach. Merics Think Tank in Germany (itself sanctioned by Beijing) Watching China empowers itselfRetaliation against Western governments for sanctions on companies and individuals.
A pair Podcast recommendation . Anders Aslund, Expert on Russian and Eastern European Issues of the Atlantic Council, discuss Effect Beixi No. 2 Pipeline European issues at the center of European international politics and economy.Trade negotiations-the collaboration between Soumaya Keynes of the economist and Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute-are back, and its The latest version of Focus on global taxation agreements.
New statesman ($) Watching why Brexit stanceRisk of serious damage Relations with the United States.
Last but not least, the Nikkei Index ($) Great reading About importance China Railway Express As an alternative, this line can transport various items such as cars and household items from several cities in China to Europe. It is faster than sea freight (especially now) and cheaper than air freight. Alan Beatty and Claire Jones