Ontario’s fixed election law sets the date for the next ballot as June 2, 2022. PCs should be thankful that they don’t have to face voters earlier.

Three public opinion surveys conducted last month showed that support for personal computers has been hit.

Survey object Léger for Postmedia, Main Street Research with Campaign research All activities conducted at different times in May showed a similar political landscape in Ontario.

PCs lead in all three polls with a support rate of 33% to 36%, while the Liberal Party has a support rate of 26% to 27%, the New Democratic Party has a support rate of 25% to 28%, and the Green Party supports it. The rate is 6% to 9%.

On average, this puts the PC ahead of the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party, which are actually tied by 8 percentage points.

Ford’s PC defeated the NDP by 7 percentage points in the 2018 provincial elections, so at first glance, the situation does not seem to have deteriorated since then.

The Liberal Party is up, the New Democratic Party is down

But these three public opinion surveys show that since 2018, the PC support rate has fallen by 6 percentage points, of which the Liberal Party has risen by 7 percentage points, while the New Democratic Party has fallen by 8 percentage points. The Greens rose by about three points.

The downward trend of PCs, coupled with the vacillation between the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party, does not bode well for the current government. As the 2018 elections have shown, if a non-PC party lags behind a party, its vote can proceed quickly.

Nevertheless, if elections are held today, the split between the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party will benefit the PC, giving them a chance to win the most seats and possibly another majority government.

These three polls have some differences at the regional level, but generally show that in the Greater Toronto Area, where the election is decisive, the PC and the Liberal Party are in a deadly state, and Toronto’s own seats are mainly contested by the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party.

PCs appear to have advantages in southwestern and eastern Ontario, and are competing with the New Democrats in northern Ontario. The Hamilton-Niagara area will become a three-way race.

In summary, the PC still seems to be able to piece together a majority of the government from their rural seats and achieve enough victories in the smaller urban centers and GTA. Having won 76 seats in 2018-13 more than most people need-PCs can withstand some losses.

Personal computers are on the decline

However, the problem with PC is that the trend line is not moving in the right direction.

Compared with the survey conducted earlier this year, all three polls showed a decline in the approval rate for personal computers-according to Mainstreet data, a drop of 10 percentage points since February, and according to Léger data, since March It has fallen by 4 percentage points since April, and according to Campaign data, it has fallen by 5 percentage points since April.

Ford’s own popularity is of no avail, although Leger found that the Prime Minister’s personal approval rating of 38% is higher than the approval rating of his own party.but These numbers have been declining since the early highs of the Ford pandemic.

The pandemic does seem to cause the approval rate to drop. Léger found that before the start of the third wave in March, the support rate of PCs dealing with public health and safety and the economy fell sharply during the pandemic.

New Democracy Party is behind

For the New Democratic Party, its inability to take advantage of the PC’s recent plight is not a good sign. Compared with the last election, the New Democratic Party has received less support today.

However, the New Democratic Party still looks more competitive than it was in the 2018 election. The party retained most of its support in areas where the party made a breakthrough in the last election, such as Toronto and the Southwest. But compared with last time, the New Democratic Party may face more intense competition from the Liberal Party in Toronto.

They can use better numbers from the leader of the New Democratic Party, Andrea Horwath, whose favorability is roughly equal to that of Ford (although there are fewer people from Ontario who hold negative views of her than the prime minister).

Her high profile may give her an advantage over Steven Del Duca, the leader of the Liberal Party. But she has been the leader of Ontario’s New Democratic Party since 2009, which makes her the current federal or provincial party leader with the longest serving in any Canadian legislature. After more than 12 years, her numbers may not be much better.

Del Duca did not make a positive impression

Del Duca needs to increase his ratings. Léger found that 38% of Ontario people said that they either don’t know him or don’t know enough about him to form an opinion-this is a survey of people who answered political poll questions, who tend to be wider than the population.

Among those who hold opinions, Delduca’s numbers are not good: 19% of people tell Leger they have a favorable view of Delduca, while 39% of those who disagree.

The Liberal Party still has some obvious weaknesses in its support outside of urban areas—especially in southwestern Ontario, where the party’s votes have fallen sharply in the past few elections. In the Greater Toronto Area, opinion polls show that the Liberal Party still has some work to do to fight the New Democratic Party at the core of the city and PCs in the suburbs.

Divided opposition-but how long?

Unless the PC reverses the situation, the next election will depend on whether the anti-PC vote lags behind the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Party.

The challenge for the Green Party, which has risen slightly in opinion polls since 2018, will be to prevent their votes from being taken away by other center-left parties, which often happens in elections in Ontario and elsewhere in Canada.

Obviously, voters on the left of the PC are most likely to switch from one party to another. According to Leger, most Liberal, New Democratic and Green Party voters said they might change their minds; they are also more likely to list one of them instead of PC as their second choice. In contrast, most PC voters say their choice is final.

For Ford PCs, having a solid support base is not a bad thing. They still lead in the polls. However, falling into the mid-to-low level of their 30s in provincial support-this is what happened when they lost in the elections of 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2014-when one of the other parties took action, They are at risk of falling behind.