China further relaxes birth restrictions in response to an aging society

China further relaxes birth restrictions in response to an aging society

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China’s ruling Communist Party said on Monday that it will relax birth restrictions and allow all couples to have three rather than two children in order to slow the rapid aging of its population, which is putting pressure on the economy and society.

The ruling party has imposed birth restrictions since 1980 to limit population growth, but it is worried that the working-age population is declining too fast, while the proportion of the population over 65 is rising. This may undermine its ambitions to transform China into a prosperous consumer society and a global technology leader.

The official Xinhua News Agency said that the meeting of the ruling party led by President Xi Jinping decided to put forward “measures to actively respond to the aging population.” The leaders agreed to “implement the policy that one couple can have three children, and support measures will help improve China’s demographic structure.”

Xinhua News Agency said leaders also agreed that China needs to raise the retirement age to keep more people in the workforce and improve pensions and medical services for the elderly.

In 2015, the restriction that restricts most couples to one child was relaxed, allowing two children, but the total number of births further declined, indicating that the change in the rules has little effect on this trend.

The couple said they were delayed due to the high cost of raising children, work interruptions and the need to take care of elderly parents.

Comments on social media on Monday complained that this change does not help young parents to pay for medical expenses, low income and hard work schedule, usually referred to as “996”, that is, every Saturday at 9 am Until 9pm.

Tchaikovsky, a popular blogger on Sina Weibo, said: “The problem is not solved at every stage.” “Who will raise the baby? Do you have time? I go out early and come back late. Children don’t. Know what your parents look like.”

Another person who signed Hyeongmok said with a wry smile: “Don’t worry about aging. Our generation will not live long.”

Estimated population peak

China, like Thailand and some other Asian economies, faces what economists say is whether they can become rich before they get old.

It is estimated that China’s 1.4 billion population will reach its peak and begin to decline later this decade. Census data released on May 11 show that this is happening faster than expected, which increases the burden of underfunding pensions and health systems, and reduces the future available to support the growing population of retirees. Number of workers.

Last year, the proportion of the working-age population between 15 and 59 dropped from 70.1% ten years ago to 63.3%. The population of 65 years and older increased from 8.9% to 13.5%.

The 12 million births reported last year are down by nearly one-fifth from 2019.

Statistics official Ning Jizhe announced the data on May 11th, of which about 40% were second births, down from 50% in 2017.

Reduce the working age

Chinese researchers and the Ministry of Labor say that by 2050, the proportion of working-age population may drop to half. This increases the “dependency ratio” and also increases the number of retirees who rely on each worker to earn pensions and pay wages. Health and other public service taxes.

Xinhua News Agency said that leaders agreed at the Monday meeting that “it is necessary to steadily and gradually postpone the legal retirement age.”

It did not provide any details, but the government has been arguing about raising the official retirement age for men: 60 for men, 55 for white-collar women, and 50 for blue-collar women.

The potential changes are politically controversial. Some female professionals welcome the opportunity to continue to engage in satisfactory careers, but other women are physically exhausted by decades of manual labor, and they desperately need longer working hours.

This photo was taken on May 3, 2021. A boy and a child visited Tiananmen Square near the portrait of Mao Zedong in Beijing. (Wu Hanguan/Associated Press)

The fertility rate or the average number of births per mother in 2020 is 1.3, which is much lower than 2.1, which maintains the population size.

Before the rule of other only-children, China’s birth rate was already on par with the trends of other Asian economies. According to data from the World Bank, the average number of children per Chinese mother fell from under six in the 1960s to under three in 1980.

Demographers say that the official birth limit masks a further decline in the number of children per family without restrictions.

The ruling party said it avoided up to 400 million potential births and avoided food and water shortages. But demographers say that if China follows development trends in Thailand, parts of India, and other countries, the number of additional babies may be as low as several million.

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