The Liberal Party’s path to a possible majority government runs through Quebec

Quebec will shine in the next federal election, and the Liberal Party’s recent moves indicate that they are playing a role in the seat between the Quebecer group and the majority government.

Among the many documents-French protection, Quebec plans to amend the constitution and the C-10 bill, which is a piece of legislation widely supported within the province-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has opened up to Quebec.

The Liberal Party hopes that voters in the province will be equally open to them.

Opinion polls show that the party is on the threshold of ensuring a majority government that it failed to win in 2019.According to CBC’s opinion survey, a summary of all publicly available opinion survey data If an election is held today, the party will win about 171 seats.

The Liberal Party needs at least 170 seats to win the majority government-which means that their current level of opinion polls will not give them too much room for error.

Quebec is an important part of the Liberal Party’s electoral dilemma. For them, it may also be the best place to find as many seats as 170 required.

Poll Tracker’s seat prediction model shows that the Liberty Party has more room to rise in Quebec than anywhere else in the country, and it is possible to add up to 9 more seats in the province.

The best-case scenario for the Liberal Party’s growth elsewhere shows that they can win eight more seats in British Columbia, six seats in Ontario and five seats in Alberta, as well as another all over the Prairie and Atlantic Canada. Five seats.

But some of these benefits are easier to imagine than others.

Not all potential seat gains are equal

Let’s start from the west coast. In order to obtain these eight BC seats, the Liberal Party needs to win the BC internal affairs, defeat the independent MP Jody Wilson-Raybould, and engage in a three-way fierce battle with the Conservative Party and the New Democratic Party in parts of the Lower Mainland.

In Ontario, the question is whether the Liberal Party has reached its peak. The party won 79 seats in Ontario in 2019, only one less than the 80 seats that the Trudeau Liberal Party won in 2015.

The Ontario seats on the Liberal Party’s target list include some rural horse riding activities, some of whom are in good terms, while some are located on the fringes of the Greater Toronto Area.

CBC News: House of Representatives9:01How does Quebec’s Bill 96 perform in Ottawa

Why doesn’t the Federalist party pay more attention to Quebec’s constitutional amendment? Daniel Béland, professor of political science and director of the McGill Canadian Institute, joined the House of Representatives to carefully study the performance of Bill 96 at the federal level. 9:01

In Ontario and British Columbia, the Liberal Party’s gains must take place in politically different areas, where the party must defeat the Conservative Party and the New Democratic Party. There is no guarantee that the Liberal Party can do this.

What about Alberta? Seriously-considering the opinion polls there since 2019, the Liberal Party that won 5 seats there seems reasonable on paper, but this will require the Liberal Party to overcome without the interests of existing incumbents Huge profits. Amarjeet Sohi is one of them The mayor of Edmonton was so busy with the campaign that he could not win the support of Edmonton Mill Woods.

Although the unpopularity of Alberta Governor Jason Kenney may have an impact on the number of Federal Conservatives, polls may once again underestimate the province’s Conservative support. (Government of Alberta)

These polls also greatly underestimated Alberta’s Conservative Party support in 2019, even if Alberta Governor Jason Kenney dragged down the Federal Conservative Party numbers.

Improving the Liberal Party of Quebec’s polls

Leaving Quebec. The Liberal Party won 35 seats across the province in 2019; now, the poll tracker puts the province-wide Liberal Party’s win range between 35 and 44 seats. The highest end of this range will bring the Liberal Party-13 seats lacking a majority by 2019-to more than two-thirds of the promised land.

Most of the seats in question are French-speaking, mostly around Montreal Island. With the exception of Beauport–Limoilou in Quebec City and Trois-Rivières in central Quebec (the Conservative Party may also be a factor), the main opponent of the liberals in these seats is the European Front.

The recent opinion polls are beneficial to Quebec’s Liberal Party. According to public opinion surveys, the party’s support rate in the province is 37%. Although the results vary widely (the percentage of individual votes increased from 29% to 47%), in Quebec, the approval rate of the Liberal Party is often close to 40%.

This is a new development. In four of the past eight polls, the Liberal Party has gained 40% or more support in Quebec. In the past 19 surveys, they only did 4 times.

In the next general election, Quebec’s leader Yves Francois Blanchett may participate in the defense to prevent the Liberal Party from winning some of his party’s current seats. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canada Press)

On the other hand, Yves-François Blanchett’s Bloc Québécois voter turnout rate is about 27%, and most surveys show that the party is lower than 32.5% in 2019.

In the recent Quebec federal polls, the transition between the two parties has been the only important sign of the movement. The Conservative Party and the Kuomintang have remained stable and unanimous at around 17% and 10% respectively, basically the same as last time.

Opinion polls show that since 2019, the Liberal Party has gained about 3 points of support in Quebec, while the big group has fallen by 5.5 points. When the Liberal Party scored higher in Quebec’s polls, the group’s polls tended to decrease. This shows that there is a movement between liberals and group voters.

Libertarians fight for group vote

Therefore, the Liberal Party’s recent concern for Quebec has political significance. In February, the Liberal Party Reform of the Official Language Law Expand the right to work in France.

Outside Quebec, Minister of Heritage (and Member of Parliament in Montreal) Steven Guilbeault under fire for Bill C-10, This is a controversial piece of legislation designed to bring network giants under the jurisdiction of the Broadcasting Law. However, in Quebec, the bill has received widespread support And won the unanimous support of the National Assembly.

with The government of Prime Minister François Le Gotte introduced Act No. 96 Trudeau said that a piece of legislation aimed at protecting French includes a proposal to amend the constitution to recognize Quebec as a country and French as its language. Trudeau said his government’s initial legal analysis concluded that the province can move on.

At the same time, the election analysis of the Liberal Party may conclude that the New Democracy Party is no longer a major participant in Quebec. The Green Party has ambitious but unrealistic ambitions in the province. The proposal appears to be similar to voters rejected in 2019.

In order to win the majority, the Liberal Party must defeat France in its own game. It is not easy to drive Quebec out of Quebec. This does not mean that the Trudeau Liberal Party will not try.

Source link