Erin O’Toole did not make a breakthrough-neither Jason Kenney nor Doug Ford helped
Conservative leader Erin O’Toole was unable to make any progress in the polls against the Liberal Party and could use his friends Alberta Prime Minister Jason Kenny and Ontario Prime Minister Doug A little help from Ford.
Basically, he needs Ford and Kenny to avoid doing anything that would make him worse.
Lags behind the Liberal Party by 6 percentage points nationwide CBC’s poll -The sum of all public opinion polls-The Conservative Party is struggling in Ontario and Alberta and elsewhere.
But Ontario is the main electoral battlefield for the Conservative Party, and Alberta is considered their invulnerable bastion. When Kenny and Ford slipped in the polls, it may not be accidental that O’Toole encountered difficulties in these provinces.
Two polls published this week Battle Research with Mainstreet research This shows that Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party still maintains a leading position in Ontario. But because the party currently accounts for an average of 34.5% in the two surveys, Ford’s PC has dropped by 6 points since the 2018 provincial elections. Only the divided opposition keeps his party ahead.
Since its peak in May 2020 during the first wave of the pandemic, Ford’s own personal numbers have gotten worse.according to Abacus data, Now only 30% of Ontario people have a good impression of Ford, a drop of 16 points from last spring. His negative impression score increased by 22 points to 47%.
The situation may get worse for Kenny of Alberta, where he faces a core debate over the province’s pandemic restrictions.
Since December, Kenny’s United Conservative Party’s polls have fallen behind by an average of 10 percentage points, behind the opposition New Democratic Party. Since the 2019 provincial elections, this represents a 30-point linkage between UCP and NDP.
The pandemic seems to be driving these trends in opinion polls.
According to a survey lightOnly 29% of Albertans and 37% of Ontarios are satisfied with the measures taken by their provincial government to fight the pandemic, a level lower than reported anywhere else in the country.
In Legger’s survey, Ontario and Alberta were also the only two provinces where the federal government received a higher score than the provincial government.
This is what may hurt O’Toole-voters in Alberta and Ontario believe that the Federal Free Government has performed better in the pandemic than its Conservative Prime Minister.
Trouble in the conservative heartland
according to Vote tracker, O’Toole’s Conservative Party has 47% support in Alberta, much higher than the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party. But this means a drop of 22 points since the 2019 federal election, and a drop of about 10 points since the beginning of the pandemic.
Of course, even in the case of a sharp drop in support, the seat of the Alberta Conservative Party is rarely threatened. Of the 33 seats the Conservative Party won in the province in 2019, only two won by less than 20 points. The Conservatives can deal with them for 30 points and then succumb to a few seats.
Despite this, the Conservative Party cannot leave any seats on the table, especially seats that usually win easily.No help lately Angus Reed Institute The poll provided 7% support in Alberta for the Maverick Party, which advocates Western autonomy.
The decline in Alberta’s approval rating also does not help the Conservative Party’s national image. Losing 22 points in Alberta might not put the seat at risk of more than one or two seats, but it does mean a decline of more than two percentage points across the country-making the Conservatives and Liberals less competitive .
Ford to no avail in Ontario
This kind of thing may overflow in Ontario. Many voters like to support parties that look like winners.
This Vote tracker The Conservative Party’s voter turnout in Ontario was only 30%, a drop of 3 points since 2019. They are about 11 percentage points behind the Liberal Party and 3 percentage points higher than the last election.
If the Conservative Party has a chance to form a government in the future, then success in Ontario is absolutely essential. Ford’s unpopularity was an obstacle to Andrew Scheer’s leadership of the Federal Party in the 2019 general election.
But the situation may be worse for the party now. Opinion polls that look good even to the Conservative Party (for example, recent polls) Abacus data with light, The Conservative Party is only two or three points behind the country, while the Liberal Party in Ontario is still ahead by 12 or 13 points. That is the election ball.
Vaccines can help the prime minister
As the third wave recedes and more vaccinations are given to people in Alberta and Ontario, the negative sentiment of voters towards Ford and Kenny may also fade. If this happens, O’Toole’s Conservative Party may be able to regain some lost ground in these two provinces.
When Canadians find out that they are taking a second dose of vaccine early this summer, Kenny, Ford and O’Toole’s attack on the federal government’s vaccine procurement efforts may also be counterproductive.
Either way, it shows that the Liberal Party may have an incentive to send voters into the polls earlier than later. Any improvements to Ford and Kenny’s polls can begin on O’Toole.
At that time, O’Toole’s friends might actually start to help him.He needs help: a recent poll Abacus data The survey found that only 18% of Canadians have a positive impression of the leader of the Federal Conservative Party, while 35% have a negative impression of it.
This is the worst number since becoming a leader in August last year. He couldn’t blame Kenny or Ford for all the troubles-but they didn’t make him easier.
Listen | Erin O’Toole speaks to CBC’s “Front Burner”:
Front burner24:31Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole (Part One)